TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Martin Stusek vs Tomas Vorisek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115911811711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:10 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Vorisek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stusek above · Tomas Vorisek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Tomas Vorisek at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stusek 149–168 Tomas Vorisek Martin Stusek has won 149 of their 317 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1054.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vorisek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
149-168 in 317
Vorisek
Correct
gap of 19 in 317, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1703 vs Vorisek 1724
Vorisek
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 40% vs Vorisek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 40% vs Vorisek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek +1 · Vorisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vorisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.833 / Vorisek 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vorisek)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13226909
Stusek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Vorisek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStusek5wins
AwayVorisek5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek100%4 of 4
AwayVorisek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek4Vorisek6n = 10Vorisek took 6 of 10
S2Stusek5Vorisek5n = 10split evenly
S3Stusek6Vorisek4n = 10Stusek took 6 of 10
S4Stusek2Vorisek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStusekVorisekS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.432.4+2.0per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekVorisekBasisWin rate · lifetime327 / 691 vs 406 / 80047.3%50.8%327 / 691 vs 406 / 800Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VorisekStusek 1.83/Vorisek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vorisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 20:20M. Stusek29581151T. Vorisek4011117113
LSep 27 · 19:50M. Stusek185580T. Vorisek331111113
WSep 25 · 19:20M. Stusek4311912113T. Vorisek345111081
WSep 22 · 19:25M. Stusek331111113T. Vorisek157620
LSep 21 · 18:55M. Stusek3113990T. Vorisek371511113
LSep 17 · 18:55M. Stusek3599170T. Vorisek411111193
WSep 15 · 21:53M. Stusek4391211113T. Vorisek321110471
WSep 15 · 18:55M. Stusek331111113T. Vorisek193970
LSep 13 · 07:55M. Stusek4110118121T. Vorisek4312611143
WSep 11 · 22:03M. Stusek381116113T. Vorisek3091470
M. Stusek10
LOct 1 · 20:20M. Stusek2.7561141152J. Zlamal1.40116118113LOct 1 · 19:20M. Stusek1.9171211192F. Cernota1.801110118113WSep 28 · 21:25M. Stusek1.851113113F. Strejc1.8571170LSep 28 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.8311117113M. Stusek1.83581151LSep 28 · 19:50J. Zlamal1.441212113M. Stusek2.63101060WSep 28 · 18:50M. Stusek1.801111113F. Strejc1.919980LSep 27 · 21:23M. Stusek2.5591111752D. Jicha1.45117911113WSep 27 · 20:50D. Jicha1.5711751152M. Stusek2.25411113113LSep 27 · 19:50M. Stusek2.005580T. Vorisek1.731111113LSep 27 · 18:20J. Zlamal1.501112113M. Stusek2.5041080
T. Vorisek10
LOct 1 · 19:50T. Vorisek2.20111011642J. Zlamal1.61512811113LSep 28 · 21:55J. Zlamal1.611111113T. Vorisek2.207760WSep 28 · 20:20T. Vorisek1.8311117113M. Stusek1.83581151WSep 28 · 19:20T. Vorisek1.61991111113F. Strejc2.2011116472LSep 28 · 18:20T. Vorisek2.201111411102J. Zlamal1.61913116123LSep 27 · 21:53J. Zlamal1.6112411113T. Vorisek2.201011861LSep 27 · 20:20J. Zlamal1.5311115113T. Vorisek2.38351181WSep 27 · 19:50M. Stusek2.005580T. Vorisek1.731111113WSep 27 · 18:50T. Vorisek1.831213153D. Jicha1.831011130WSep 25 · 21:30F. Strejc2.509660T. Vorisek1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Stusek
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T. Vorisek
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