TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Wisniewski vs Maciej Kolek 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211711116911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:14 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Wisniewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
211711116911––
H2H Karol Wisniewski 11–8 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1454.0%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
short by 0.1pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Wisniewski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wisniewski 1631 vs Kolek 1632
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wisniewski 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wisniewski 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wisniewski -1 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wisniewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wisniewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWisniewski 1.85 / Kolek 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wisniewski)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13225778
Wisniewski1.85
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kolek1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWisniewski6wins
AwayKolek4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderWisniewski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWisniewski85.7%6 of 7
AwayKolek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wisniewski7Kolek3n = 10Wisniewski took 7 of 10
S2Wisniewski6Kolek4n = 10Wisniewski took 6 of 10
S3Wisniewski5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S4Wisniewski5Kolek3n = 8Wisniewski took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWisniewskiKolekW − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.536.6−0.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWisniewskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime980 / 2179 vs 746 / 148345%50.3%980 / 2179 vs 746 / 1483Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WisniewskiWisniewski 1.85/Kolek 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wisniewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 07:40K. Wisniewski3811115113M. Kolek32861171
LSep 11 · 12:10K. Wisniewski25114461M. Kolek4291111113
LSep 2 · 09:45K. Wisniewski491010111172M. Kolek52121298113
WAug 31 · 07:15K. Wisniewski381111163M. Kolek3299140
WAug 28 · 09:45K. Wisniewski4111118113M. Kolek34691181
LAug 15 · 00:45K. Wisniewski28711371M. Kolek4111811113
LAug 10 · 22:55K. Wisniewski33881161M. Kolek4111118113
WAug 10 · 03:20K. Wisniewski3911611113M. Kolek31611681
WJul 8 · 14:15K. Wisniewski3911115123M. Kolek324711101
WJun 19 · 13:00K. Wisniewski351311113M. Kolek2911990
K. Wisniewski10
LOct 1 · 04:00M. Olbrycht2.0011118113K. Wisniewski1.70871161WOct 1 · 03:20K. Wisniewski1.90141115113K. Kapik1.751671371LSep 30 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz1.8031111143K. Wisniewski1.851168121LSep 30 · 07:15K. Wisniewski3.00116671J. Kuzmicz1.3261111113WSep 30 · 06:00M. Olbrycht2.0069111242K. Wisniewski1.721111610113WSep 30 · 04:50L. Jarocki1.6589130K. Wisniewski2.101111153LSep 30 · 03:20A. Spychala1.7011114113K. Wisniewski2.05581131WSep 29 · 07:40K. Wisniewski1.9111115113M. Kolek1.78861171LSep 29 · 06:25K. Wisniewski2.1066110G. Poliniewicz1.651111133LSep 29 · 05:15K. Wisniewski3.25911981K. Wloczko1.2711811113
M. Kolek10
WOct 1 · 04:25P. Jendrzejewski1.6179150M. Kolek2.151111173LOct 1 · 03:00M. Olbrycht1.9051311113M. Kolek1.801111761WSep 30 · 13:55M. Zwolinski4.958870M. Kolek1.121111113WSep 30 · 13:05R. Stapor2.5281141142M. Kolek1.47115117113LSep 30 · 12:15M. Kolek1.858141191J. Zochniak1.8011167113LSep 30 · 10:35M. Kolek1.4096111162M. Minda2.70111136113WSep 30 · 09:50B. Czerwinski2.05115771M. Kolek1.6961111113WSep 29 · 14:40M. Kolek1.291311113F. Krcil3.3211760LSep 29 · 13:05M. Kolek1.6111961162D. Solilo2.15811119113LSep 29 · 07:40K. Wisniewski1.9111115113M. Kolek1.78861171
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