TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Olbrycht vs Karol Wisniewski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118117811116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:58 and never touched: 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Olbrycht to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
118117811116––
H2H Michal Olbrycht 31–24 Karol Wisniewski Karol Wisniewski has won 24 of their 55 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 22h before this match
Wisniewski beat Olbrycht 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:5858.0%Our read50.0%to break even at 2.00
clears by 8.0pp50.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 2.00 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Wisniewski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
31-24 in 55
Olbrycht
Correct
gap of 7 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1728 vs Wisniewski 1641
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 80% vs Wisniewski 60%
Olbrycht
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 60% vs Wisniewski 40%
Olbrycht
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht +1 · Wisniewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Olbrycht) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 2.00 / Wisniewski 1.70
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Olbrycht)+8.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13225610
Olbrycht2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 82 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back17% 24 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 73
Wisniewski1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 128 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it92% 59 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it85% 93 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht5wins
AwayWisniewski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht100%3 of 3
AwayWisniewski71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht3Wisniewski7n = 10Wisniewski took 7 of 10
S2Olbrycht1Wisniewski9n = 10Wisniewski took 9 of 10
S3Olbrycht9Wisniewski1n = 10Olbrycht took 9 of 10
S4Olbrycht6Wisniewski3n = 9Olbrycht took 6 of 9
S5Olbrycht2Wisniewski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtWisniewskiO − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.239.6+0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtWisniewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime380 / 794 vs 980 / 217847.9%45%380 / 794 vs 980 / 2178Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OlbrychtOlbrycht 2.00/Wisniewski 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Olbrycht · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 06:00M. Olbrycht4269111242K. Wisniewski491111610113
WSep 17 · 03:20M. Olbrycht49881111113K. Wisniewski4411116972
LSep 16 · 04:25M. Olbrycht371091171K. Wisniewski4112117113
WAug 12 · 21:50M. Olbrycht43111011113K. Wisniewski32712581
LAug 12 · 00:35M. Olbrycht34861191K. Wisniewski4011117113
WMay 21 · 14:00M. Olbrycht3911611113K. Wisniewski30811561
LMay 21 · 08:45M. Olbrycht4799111172K. Wisniewski46111185113
WMay 20 · 03:55M. Olbrycht45111211113K. Wisniewski391310881
WMay 19 · 04:35M. Olbrycht44114117113K. Wisniewski4181131182
LApr 22 · 03:30M. Olbrycht2210750K. Wisniewski341211113
M. Olbrycht10
WOct 1 · 03:00M. Olbrycht1.9051311113M. Kolek1.801111761LSep 30 · 14:35M. Olbrycht2.2513119692L. Jarocki1.581181111113WSep 30 · 13:00M. Olbrycht1.801111123G. Poliniewicz1.9067100WSep 30 · 11:45M. Olbrycht1.8011514113M. Rutkowski1.859111261WSep 30 · 10:05M. Olbrycht3.65471111113K. Kolodziej1.2211118972WSep 30 · 09:00M. Olbrycht1.8011115153A. Spychala1.809811131LSep 30 · 07:40A. Spychala1.8511511113M. Olbrycht1.80711451LSep 30 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz1.9111117113M. Olbrycht1.80971181LSep 30 · 06:00M. Olbrycht2.0069111242K. Wisniewski1.721111610113WSep 30 · 04:25M. Olbrycht2.401111123J. Kuzmicz1.5097100
K. Wisniewski10
WOct 1 · 03:20K. Wisniewski1.90141115113K. Kapik1.751671371LSep 30 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz1.8031111143K. Wisniewski1.851168121LSep 30 · 07:15K. Wisniewski3.00116671J. Kuzmicz1.3261111113WSep 30 · 06:00M. Olbrycht2.0069111242K. Wisniewski1.721111610113WSep 30 · 04:50L. Jarocki1.6589130K. Wisniewski2.101111153LSep 30 · 03:20A. Spychala1.7011114113K. Wisniewski2.05581131WSep 29 · 07:40K. Wisniewski1.9111115113M. Kolek1.78861171LSep 29 · 06:25K. Wisniewski2.1066110G. Poliniewicz1.651111133LSep 29 · 05:15K. Wisniewski3.25911981K. Wloczko1.2711811113LSep 29 · 04:00M. Miastowski1.2011412113K. Wisniewski3.806111091
Upcoming Matches
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