TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Merzlikin vs Maksym Tiutiunnyk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111012611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:05 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeValerii Merzlikin to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Merzlikin above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Valerii Merzlikin at 65.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Merzlikin 26–14 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Maksym Tiutiunnyk has won 14 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0565.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Merzlikin
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-14 in 40
Merzlikin
Wrong
gap of 12 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merzlikin 1590 vs Tiutiunnyk 1609
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merzlikin 60% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
Merzlikin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merzlikin 50% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merzlikin -1 · Tiutiunnyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Merzlikin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerzlikin 1.444 / Tiutiunnyk 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Merzlikin)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224871
Merzlikin1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 17 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Tiutiunnyk2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 38 of 95
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerzlikin7wins
AwayTiutiunnyk3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMerzlikin leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerzlikin85.7%6 of 7
AwayTiutiunnyk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merzlikin7Tiutiunnyk3n = 10Merzlikin took 7 of 10
S2Merzlikin8Tiutiunnyk2n = 10Merzlikin took 8 of 10
S3Merzlikin6Tiutiunnyk4n = 10Merzlikin took 6 of 10
S4Merzlikin1Tiutiunnyk3n = 4Tiutiunnyk took 3 of 4
S5Merzlikin2Tiutiunnyk1n = 3Merzlikin took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykM − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.830.1+7.7per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerzlikinTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 589 vs 204 / 41144.7%49.6%263 / 589 vs 204 / 411Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MerzlikinMerzlikin 1.44/Tiutiunnyk 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Merzlikin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 15:40V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk206590
WSep 24 · 13:10V. Merzlikin521111109113M. Tiutiunnyk3534121152
WSep 19 · 15:10V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk161960
LSep 12 · 13:10V. Merzlikin33116971M. Tiutiunnyk4291111113
LSep 9 · 13:40V. Merzlikin50101281192M. Tiutiunnyk491210115113
WAug 5 · 13:10V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk178540
LJun 20 · 13:10V. Merzlikin218760M. Tiutiunnyk331111113
WMar 29 · 09:30V. Merzlikin361311123M. Tiutiunnyk25114100
WMar 28 · 14:40V. Merzlikin549131110113M. Tiutiunnyk44111141262
WMar 11 · 11:40V. Merzlikin331111113M. Tiutiunnyk205960
V. Merzlikin10
LSep 30 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.80911119113V. Merzlikin1.9111871192WSep 30 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.531111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.386590WSep 30 · 14:40V. Merzlikin1.502111411113D. Habrelyan2.50119121392WSep 30 · 13:10V. Merzlikin2.63661111113I. Efimenko1.4411112562LSep 30 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.73101214782Y. Holoborodko2.0012101211113LSep 24 · 16:40V. Maksuta1.6713111110113V. Merzlikin2.1015851272WSep 24 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.67115511113Y. Holoborodko2.1081111952LSep 24 · 14:40V. Merzlikin2.20111187102A. Zozulia1.61591111123WSep 24 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.501111109113M. Tiutiunnyk2.5034121152LSep 24 · 11:10V. Merzlikin2.50661111O. Blashkun1.5011118113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
LOct 1 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.501111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.505840WSep 30 · 17:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.731281111113Y. Holoborodko2.00101113992LSep 30 · 15:40V. Merzlikin1.531111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.386590LSep 30 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6791111123M. Tiutiunnyk2.101149101LSep 30 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk1.67811131262D. Habrelyan2.101181510113WSep 30 · 11:40I. Efimenko1.837119111M. Tiutiunnyk1.8311211133LSep 26 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.6111168742O. Blashkun2.204141111113LSep 26 · 15:10A. Droshchynskyi1.3611117113M. Tiutiunnyk3.00971171WSep 26 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731110111153Y. Holoborodko2.0013129812LSep 24 · 13:10V. Merzlikin1.501111109113M. Tiutiunnyk2.5034121152
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