TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Pavel Chvatal vs Jan Lovl 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Jan Lovl at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 13–10 Jan Lovl Jan Lovl has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickContradict
Sealed 11:0354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lovl
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Chvatal
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1615 vs Lovl 1569
Chvatal
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 80% vs Lovl 20%
Chvatal
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 60% vs Lovl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal +3 · Lovl -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lovl) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 2.00 / Lovl 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chvatal)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13224802
Chvatal2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 32 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Lovl1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 73 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it78% 61 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChvatal5wins
AwayLovl5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvatal100%3 of 3
AwayLovl71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal3Lovl7n = 10Lovl took 7 of 10
S2Chvatal4Lovl6n = 10Lovl took 6 of 10
S3Chvatal6Lovl4n = 10Chvatal took 6 of 10
S4Chvatal3Lovl4n = 7Lovl took 4 of 7
S5Chvatal3Lovl1n = 4Chvatal took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChvatalLovlC − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.839.1−1.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 275 vs 190 / 36654.9%51.9%151 / 275 vs 190 / 366Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 2.00/Lovl 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 17:44P. Chvatal3831311113J. Lovl331111741
WAug 23 · 15:04P. Chvatal49971111113J. Lovl4311117952
LAug 22 · 09:08P. Chvatal31611861J. Lovl4211911113
LAug 22 · 08:05P. Chvatal238690J. Lovl331111113
WAug 12 · 17:35P. Chvatal501111116113J. Lovl4331371192
WAug 12 · 16:05P. Chvatal53139119113J. Lovl43111161142
LAug 5 · 13:03P. Chvatal2361070J. Lovl341112113
LAug 5 · 11:05P. Chvatal391014691J. Lovl46121211113
LJul 23 · 13:03P. Chvatal3857111142J. Lovl47111186113
WJul 23 · 10:05P. Chvatal341211113J. Lovl2710980
P. Chvatal10
WOct 1 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731111113R. Neterda2.008990WSep 25 · 09:05P. Chvatal1.5011311113M. Rojka2.50911971WSep 25 · 08:05P. Chvatal1.5711118113R. Neterda2.25571131LSep 25 · 07:05P. Chvatal1.576370M. Flesar2.251111113WSep 25 · 06:05P. Chvatal1.6181111113M. Rojka2.20116881WSep 24 · 17:03P. Chvatal1.531113113J. Manhal Jr2.3841150LSep 24 · 16:05P. Chvatal1.6183111372R. Neterda2.201111611113WSep 24 · 15:05P. Chvatal1.53111013113J. Manhal Jr2.388121161LSep 24 · 14:05P. Chvatal1.5314911121J. Martin2.3816114143LSep 24 · 09:35P. Chvatal1.539690M. Flesar2.381111113
J. Lovl10
LOct 1 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.83841111113J. Lovl1.8311113462LSep 29 · 13:08J. Lovl1.3371011101O. Pros3.2511128123LSep 29 · 12:05J. Ruzicka2.20117911113J. Lovl1.6181111252WSep 29 · 11:35O. Pros2.758590J. Lovl1.401111113LSep 29 · 10:35J. Lovl1.737780R. Neterda2.001111113WSep 27 · 09:40K. Lahodny1.83311781J. Lovl1.8311911113WSep 27 · 08:05J. Lovl1.501111113M. Flesar2.509890LSep 27 · 07:05J. Lovl1.57117891K. Lahodny2.2591111113WSep 27 · 06:05J. Lovl1.6111711113R. Vavricka2.20911781WSep 26 · 09:49J. Ruzicka1.83101070J. Lovl1.831212113
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