TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Miloslav Ullman vs Jakub Senk 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161311511811115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiloslav Ullman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiloslav Ullman above · Jakub Senk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 92 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Miloslav Ullman at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Ullman 4–4 Jakub Senk Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ullman
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ullman 1654 vs Senk 1621
Ullman
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ullman 60% vs Senk 80%
Senk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ullman 60% vs Senk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ullman -2 · Senk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Ullman) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUllman 1.80 / Senk 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ullman)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13224051
Ullman1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 11 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Senk1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 25 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back31% 10 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeUllman4wins
AwaySenk4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUllman66.7%4 of 6
AwaySenkn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ullman6Senk2n = 8Ullman took 6 of 8
S2Ullman5Senk3n = 8Ullman took 5 of 8
S3Ullman4Senk4n = 8split evenly
S4Ullman1Senk5n = 6Senk took 5 of 6
S5Ullman1Senk2n = 3Senk took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricUllmanSenkU − SBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match40.138.4+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUllmanSenkBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 399 vs 152 / 28447.1%53.5%188 / 399 vs 152 / 284Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UllmanUllman 1.80/Senk 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ullman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ullman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 1 · 06:45M. Ullman48111358113J. Senk44611111152
LSep 15 · 08:33M. Ullman4791111882J. Senk51119911113
LSep 15 · 05:30M. Ullman4211511782J. Senk45411811113
LMar 10 · 08:45M. Ullman35116991J. Senk4071111113
WFeb 28 · 13:50M. Ullman3911611113J. Senk31711671
LFeb 28 · 12:45M. Ullman376111191J. Senk4111613113
WJul 31 · 06:45M. Ullman331111113J. Senk178090
M. Ullman10
WOct 1 · 07:15M. Vyskocil1.80811861M. Ullman1.9111711113LOct 1 · 05:45M. Ullman1.9195100T. Liska1.801111123LSep 30 · 08:48J. Rochowanski2.381111113M. Ullman1.539990WSep 30 · 07:15M. Ullman1.73131113113M. Vana2.001181581WSep 30 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83111184113R. Pisa1.8384111192WSep 30 · 05:15M. Ullman1.611111113J. Rochowanski2.209920LSep 27 · 20:45L. Veigl1.7391111113M. Ullman2.00116681WSep 27 · 19:15M. Ullman2.0051112113T. Liska1.731181081WSep 27 · 18:15M. Ullman1.9111911173L. Veigl1.807118151WSep 27 · 17:15M. Ullman1.83111159113R. Pisa1.8377111182
J. Senk10
WOct 1 · 05:15M. Vyskocil1.8399111132J. Senk1.83111148113WSep 22 · 16:49M. Myler1.73911119132J. Senk2.00119911153LSep 22 · 15:45J. Senk1.6795150M. Myler2.101111152LSep 22 · 14:15L. Veigl1.571011611173J. Senk2.25122115152WSep 22 · 13:45O. Mezera2.001011991J. Senk1.7312911113WSep 15 · 08:33J. Senk2.00119911113M. Ullman1.7391111882LSep 15 · 08:00R. Pisa1.73311811113J. Senk2.0011811752LSep 15 · 07:00L. Rulc1.83111011113J. Senk1.83512651WSep 15 · 05:30M. Ullman1.6711511782J. Senk2.10411811113LSep 10 · 08:33L. Veigl1.6714117113J. Senk2.101291191
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