TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Chuhai vs Andrii Lushchyk 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
3111210611119611
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:23 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Lushchyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Andrii Lushchyk @ 1.67 · Won
How it is goingSerhii Chuhai above · Andrii Lushchyk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Andrii Lushchyk at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Chuhai 59–109 Andrii Lushchyk Serhii Chuhai has won 59 of their 168 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 18:2354.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lushchyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
59-109 in 168
Lushchyk
Correct
gap of 50 in 168, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chuhai 1778 vs Lushchyk 1702
Chuhai
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chuhai 20% vs Lushchyk 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chuhai 40% vs Lushchyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chuhai -4 · Lushchyk -2
Chuhai
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Lushchyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lushchyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChuhai 2.10 / Lushchyk 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lushchyk)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223774
Chuhai2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 77 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back20% 28 of 143
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 83
Lushchyk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite66% won 110 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it97% 63 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it82% 83 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChuhai4wins
AwayLushchyk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLushchyk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChuhai42.9%3 of 7
AwayLushchyk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chuhai7Lushchyk3n = 10Chuhai took 7 of 10
S2Chuhai0Lushchyk10n = 10Lushchyk took 10 of 10
S3Chuhai4Lushchyk6n = 10Lushchyk took 6 of 10
S4Chuhai6Lushchyk2n = 8Chuhai took 6 of 8
S5Chuhai1Lushchyk2n = 3Lushchyk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChuhaiLushchykC − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.9−2.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChuhaiLushchykBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 943 vs 371 / 80150.7%46.3%478 / 943 vs 371 / 801Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LushchykChuhai 2.10/Lushchyk 1.67
Hit
What we said
54%
Lushchyk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Andrii Lushchyk @ 1.67 · Won
What happened
2–3
Lushchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 29 · 14:30S. Chuhai301110451A. Lushchyk4391211113
WSep 24 · 16:00S. Chuhai4511912133A. Lushchyk4191110111
LSep 22 · 17:30S. Chuhai239680A. Lushchyk331111113
LSep 22 · 12:30S. Chuhai35118971A. Lushchyk4181111113
LSep 18 · 16:30S. Chuhai4111681152A. Lushchyk49811118113
WSep 18 · 13:00S. Chuhai4111811113A. Lushchyk30411691
WSep 17 · 15:30S. Chuhai52991211113A. Lushchyk48111110792
LSep 17 · 14:30S. Chuhai48117911102A. Lushchyk52911119123
WSep 8 · 13:30S. Chuhai4611816113A. Lushchyk387111461
LSep 4 · 14:00S. Chuhai2210570A. Lushchyk341211113
S. Chuhai10
LOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141WOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381LOct 1 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.7511761192R. Ivanov1.25911119113LSep 29 · 16:59S. Chuhai2.254811101I. Fedoryshyn1.5711117123LSep 29 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn1.4491112113S. Chuhai2.631151051LSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.5791211113S. Chuhai2.251110451WSep 29 · 13:00M. Baday1.33711441S. Chuhai3.2511611113WSep 29 · 12:00A. Kasyanov1.675411101S. Chuhai2.1011118123LSep 25 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.2511911113S. Chuhai3.75711651WSep 25 · 16:30I. Fedoryshyn1.57111050S. Chuhai2.251312113
A. Lushchyk10
LOct 1 · 14:30A. Lushchyk3.757117141R. Ivanov1.2511711163LOct 1 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.441112123A. Lushchyk2.63710100LSep 29 · 15:30M. Baday1.2011118113A. Lushchyk4.33571111WSep 29 · 14:30A. Lushchyk1.5791211113S. Chuhai2.251110451LSep 29 · 13:30A. Kasyanov1.531111113A. Lushchyk2.383680LSep 29 · 12:30A. Lushchyk2.639111421I. Fedoryshyn1.4411916113LSep 27 · 10:30A. Lushchyk1.4484111172S. Aristarkhov2.63111136113WSep 27 · 09:00A. Lushchyk1.2811115113O. Ziakun3.50461171LSep 27 · 07:30A. Lushchyk1.57109150M. Hubenko2.251211173WSep 27 · 06:00A. Lushchyk1.441111113O. Syksa2.636470
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.