TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Sebastian Krupa vs Krzysztof Juszczyk 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141181210––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Krupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
1141181210––––
H2H Sebastian Krupa 22–23 Krzysztof Juszczyk Sebastian Krupa has won 22 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:4654.0%Our read56.5%to break even at 1.77
short by 2.5pp56.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.77 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Krupa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
22-23 in 45
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupa 1468 vs Juszczyk 1388
Krupa
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupa 100% vs Juszczyk 40%
Krupa
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupa 100% vs Juszczyk 30%
Krupa
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupa +10 · Juszczyk -1
Krupa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Krupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juszczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupa 1.77 / Juszczyk 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krupa)-2.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13223198
Krupa1.77
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 121 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it81% 90 of 111
Juszczyk1.93
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 93 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back28% 32 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupa6wins
AwayJuszczyk4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKrupa leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupa83.3%5 of 6
AwayJuszczyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupa6Juszczyk4n = 10Krupa took 6 of 10
S2Krupa7Juszczyk3n = 10Krupa took 7 of 10
S3Krupa3Juszczyk7n = 10Juszczyk took 7 of 10
S4Krupa4Juszczyk3n = 7Krupa took 4 of 7
S5Krupa2Juszczyk1n = 3Krupa took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupaJuszczykK − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.736.4+1.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupaJuszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 603 vs 657 / 120950.6%54.3%305 / 603 vs 657 / 1209Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KrupaKrupa 1.77/Juszczyk 1.93
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Krupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 18:45S. Krupa331111471K. Juszczyk4381311113
LSep 13 · 16:00S. Krupa36911881K. Juszczyk4011711113
WSep 6 · 16:50S. Krupa3961111113K. Juszczyk34118691
LSep 2 · 20:20S. Krupa4391241172K. Juszczyk441110111113
LAug 26 · 20:20S. Krupa214980K. Juszczyk331111113
WAug 18 · 18:45S. Krupa331111113K. Juszczyk196490
WAug 15 · 08:20S. Krupa47111195113K. Juszczyk4056111172
WJun 28 · 22:00S. Krupa44125511113K. Juszczyk49101111892
WJun 24 · 20:20S. Krupa48111412113K. Juszczyk427121491
WJun 17 · 16:50S. Krupa331111113K. Juszczyk207760
S. Krupa10
WSep 30 · 16:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.09111182102S. Krupa1.67881111123WSep 28 · 02:20S. Krupa2.901111113M. Guzik1.367680WSep 28 · 00:45R. Ogon4.759660S. Krupa1.141111113WSep 28 · 00:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.259540S. Krupa1.551111113WSep 27 · 23:10S. Krupa—81111113M. Jozefiak—117881WSep 27 · 22:00S. Krupa1.301111133R. Adach3.2538110WSep 27 · 20:20S. Krupa2.2011311143M. Guzik1.626116121WSep 27 · 18:45R. Ogon2.80119100S. Krupa1.371311123WSep 27 · 18:00R. Adach2.83131071232S. Krupa1.3211121110113WSep 27 · 17:10S. Krupa—17911113M. Jozefiak—1511531
K. Juszczyk10
LSep 30 · 15:10P. Kaczynski1.80111011113K. Juszczyk1.85512881WSep 27 · 08:45K. Juszczyk1.6591112113O. Sokolowski2.101161081LSep 27 · 07:10K. Juszczyk1.52149111142R. Idaczyk2.30161185113WSep 27 · 06:00K. Juszczyk1.8511911113W. Pytlas1.80711491LSep 27 · 04:25K. Juszczyk1.8511117872M. Adamus1.85981111113LSep 27 · 03:10K. Juszczyk2.40211741P. Zemla1.5111311113WSep 26 · 01:45K. Juszczyk1.4010111111123O. Sokolowski2.75128137102LSep 26 · 00:35K. Juszczyk1.83611461R. Szymik1.8311911113LSep 25 · 23:20K. Juszczyk1.678870L. Oracz2.101111113LSep 25 · 22:10O. Vincenec2.251111113K. Juszczyk1.578780
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