TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Olbrycht vs Lukasz Jarocki 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311118911611911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched: 65.6% is still 65.6%
Graded at full timeLukasz Jarocki to win
65.6%
65.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
100 points played in total.
Set by set
1311118911611911
H2H Michal Olbrycht 20–33 Lukasz Jarocki Michal Olbrycht has won 20 of their 53 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3365.6%Our read63.3%to break even at 1.58
clears by 2.3pp63.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.58 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (59%)
Jarocki
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-33 in 53
Jarocki
Correct
gap of 13 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1730 vs Jarocki 1736
Jarocki
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 80% vs Jarocki 40%
Olbrycht
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 60% vs Jarocki 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht +4 · Jarocki -2
Olbrycht
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Jarocki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jarocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 2.25 / Jarocki 1.58
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Jarocki)+2.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13222655
Olbrycht2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 82 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back17% 24 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 73
Jarocki1.58
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 102 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it76% 78 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht5wins
AwayJarocki5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht100%5 of 5
AwayJarocki100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Olbrycht3Jarocki7n = 10Jarocki took 7 of 10
S3Olbrycht4Jarocki6n = 10Jarocki took 6 of 10
S4Olbrycht3Jarocki0n = 3Olbrycht took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtJarockiO − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.032.7−2.7per matchSweeps25−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtJarockiBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 803 vs 791 / 141347.7%56%383 / 803 vs 791 / 1413Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JarockiOlbrycht 2.25/Jarocki 1.58
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.6%
Jarocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 03:40M. Olbrycht3711114113L. Jarocki31871151
WSep 1 · 18:05M. Olbrycht371115113L. Jarocki2661370
LAug 11 · 18:30M. Olbrycht32913100L. Jarocki381115123
LJul 28 · 16:05M. Olbrycht2510870L. Jarocki341211113
WJul 27 · 20:30M. Olbrycht3911611113L. Jarocki36911881
LMay 8 · 09:30M. Olbrycht206860L. Jarocki331111113
LApr 7 · 20:10M. Olbrycht154380L. Jarocki331111113
LMar 29 · 16:00M. Olbrycht2165100L. Jarocki341111123
WMar 28 · 22:10M. Olbrycht4111711123L. Jarocki377119101
WMar 18 · 17:20M. Olbrycht331111113L. Jarocki259880
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 30 · 13:00M. Olbrycht1.801111123G. Poliniewicz1.9067100WSep 30 · 11:45M. Olbrycht1.8011514113M. Rutkowski1.859111261WSep 30 · 10:05M. Olbrycht3.65471111113K. Kolodziej1.2211118972WSep 30 · 09:00M. Olbrycht1.8011115153A. Spychala1.809811131LSep 30 · 07:40A. Spychala1.8511511113M. Olbrycht1.80711451LSep 30 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz1.9111117113M. Olbrycht1.80971181LSep 30 · 06:00M. Olbrycht2.0069111242K. Wisniewski1.721111610113WSep 30 · 04:25M. Olbrycht2.401111123J. Kuzmicz1.5097100WSep 30 · 03:40L. Jarocki1.57871151M. Olbrycht2.2511114113LSep 28 · 00:10J. Kuzmicz1.30611138113M. Olbrycht3.40118111182
L. Jarocki10
LSep 30 · 13:25L. Jarocki1.7211811542A. Spychala2.00911211113LSep 30 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz1.951211410113L. Jarocki1.75108111292WSep 30 · 10:55M. Rutkowski2.00811101182L. Jarocki1.70114128113WSep 30 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.51105100L. Jarocki2.401211123LSep 30 · 08:05L. Jarocki2.25861171J. Kuzmicz1.5511119113WSep 30 · 06:25A. Spychala2.0071011101L. Jarocki1.7111128123WSep 30 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz2.20691381L. Jarocki1.57111111113LSep 30 · 04:50L. Jarocki1.6589130K. Wisniewski2.101111153LSep 30 · 03:40L. Jarocki1.57871151M. Olbrycht2.2511114113WSep 15 · 13:50M. Sklensky1.7111712942L. Jarocki1.945111011113
Upcoming Matches
M. Olbrycht
Nothing scheduled
L. Jarocki
Oct 1 · 03:00L. Jarocki2.10J. Kuzmicz1.67—Oct 1 · 04:10L. Jarocki1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Oct 1 · 05:40L. Jarocki2.38D. Michna1.53—Oct 1 · 06:55L. Jarocki2.75M. Jadczyk1.40—Oct 1 · 08:30L. Jarocki2.38A. Grela1.53—Oct 1 · 09:20L. Jarocki1.83K. Wloczko1.83—Oct 1 · 10:00L. Jarocki2.38D. Michna1.53—Oct 1 · 11:15L. Jarocki2.00K. Kolodziej1.73—Oct 1 · 12:30L. Jarocki1.61M. Rutkowski2.20—Oct 1 · 13:45L. Jarocki2.38A. Grela1.53—
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