TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Oliver Vincenec vs Wojciech Urban 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12141191210117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 86 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Wojciech Urban at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 19–24 Wojciech Urban Oliver Vincenec has won 19 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:2954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Urban
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-24 in 43
Urban
Wrong
gap of 5 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1295 vs Urban 1360
Urban
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 40% vs Urban 60%
Urban
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 40% vs Urban 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec -3 · Urban +1
Vincenec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Urban) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.833 / Urban 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Urban)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13222248
Vincenec1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Urban1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVincenec4wins
AwayUrban6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec50%3 of 6
AwayUrban75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec6Urban4n = 10Vincenec took 6 of 10
S2Vincenec3Urban7n = 10Urban took 7 of 10
S3Vincenec4Urban6n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S4Vincenec4Urban4n = 8split evenly
S5Vincenec2Urban3n = 5Urban took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVincenecUrbanV − UBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.642.0−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime698 / 1529 vs 802 / 169945.7%47.2%698 / 1529 vs 802 / 1699Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanVincenec 1.83/Urban 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 03:05O. Vincenec23310100W. Urban351112123
LSep 27 · 21:05O. Vincenec2569100W. Urban341111123
WSep 21 · 01:30O. Vincenec4111711123W. Urban318112101
WSep 20 · 19:30O. Vincenec49916112113W. Urban50111481162
LSep 18 · 11:00O. Vincenec4311511882W. Urban48711811113
WSep 18 · 04:55O. Vincenec44111111113W. Urban39891391
WAug 17 · 01:30O. Vincenec44118113113W. Urban4381141192
LAug 16 · 19:30O. Vincenec361177111W. Urban4381111133
LAug 5 · 08:45O. Vincenec4481161182W. Urban45113119113
LJul 23 · 07:10O. Vincenec4711691292W. Urban529111110113
O. Vincenec10
LOct 1 · 03:50P. Gumulinski1.5011122113O. Vincenec2.507101151LSep 29 · 17:05O. Vincenec2.05116671W. Ptak1.6871111113LSep 29 · 15:30O. Vincenec3.00312100O. Jadach1.351114123WSep 29 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.81781511113P. Polok1.90111113992WSep 29 · 12:45O. Vincenec1.9011116113S. Juzek1.80671181LSep 29 · 11:30O. Vincenec2.007125101M. Baron1.73111011123LSep 29 · 10:20S. Juzek1.8561111113O. Vincenec1.85116761WSep 29 · 09:30O. Jadach1.47111112862O. Vincenec2.451371011113LSep 29 · 08:45O. Vincenec2.1511101312112W. Ptak1.627121510133WSep 29 · 07:10O. Vincenec1.901411113M. Baron1.8012980
W. Urban10
LOct 1 · 05:15R. Idaczyk1.8071115113W. Urban1.911171381WOct 1 · 03:00P. Slosarczyk3.252640W. Urban1.331111113LSep 30 · 08:20W. Urban2.037911101J. Kaczmarek1.7111117123WSep 30 · 06:45P. Adamus1.831112611112W. Urban1.88714117133WSep 30 · 06:00M. Cesarz3.658980W. Urban1.221111113LSep 30 · 05:10W. Urban2.3511128992M. Guzik1.509101111113WSep 30 · 04:00W. Urban1.99118117113M. Lebek1.7471171152WSep 29 · 08:20W. Urban1.571111113J. Kaczmarek2.253750LSep 29 · 06:45A. Ruszkiewicz1.8514811113W. Urban1.801211981LSep 29 · 06:00M. Sikon1.901111115113W. Urban1.7513791182
Upcoming Matches
O. Vincenec
Oct 1 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.67M. Baron2.10—Oct 1 · 06:55O. Vincenec1.61P. Slosarczyk2.20—Oct 1 · 07:45O. Vincenec1.91R. Idaczyk1.80—Oct 1 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.10W. Urban1.67—Oct 1 · 10:10O. Vincenec1.91R. Idaczyk1.80—Oct 1 · 11:50O. Vincenec2.50P. Gumulinski1.50—Oct 1 · 13:05O. Vincenec1.61P. Slosarczyk2.20—Oct 1 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.67M. Baron2.10—
W. Urban
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.