TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Gajda vs Witold Buczynski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11131117111113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
78 points played in total.
Set by set
11131117111113––
H2H Rafal Gajda 10–10 Witold Buczynski Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0454.0%Our read56.5%to break even at 1.77
short by 2.5pp56.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.77 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Gajda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1302 vs Buczynski 1297
Gajda
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 20% vs Buczynski 80%
Buczynski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 30% vs Buczynski 50%
Buczynski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +1 · Buczynski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gajda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buczynski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.77 / Buczynski 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gajda)-2.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221765
Gajda1.77
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 155 of 259
Up 2–0, closes it91% 74 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it75% 111 of 148
Buczynski1.93
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 192 of 504
Down 0–1, comes back22% 66 of 301
Down 0–2, comes back4% 6 of 163
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGajda4wins
AwayBuczynski6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBuczynski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda75%3 of 4
AwayBuczynski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda4Buczynski6n = 10Buczynski took 6 of 10
S2Gajda5Buczynski5n = 10split evenly
S3Gajda4Buczynski6n = 10Buczynski took 6 of 10
S4Gajda1Buczynski7n = 8Buczynski took 7 of 8
S5Gajda3Buczynski0n = 3Gajda took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGajdaBuczynskiG − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.438.8−1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaBuczynskiBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 854 vs 455 / 114651.5%39.7%440 / 854 vs 455 / 1146Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaGajda 1.77/Buczynski 1.93
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Buczynski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 14:45R. Gajda34611981W. Buczynski3611311113
LSep 2 · 11:05R. Gajda32118941W. Buczynski4181111113
LAug 4 · 11:50R. Gajda26361251W. Buczynski43111110113
LAug 4 · 03:50R. Gajda204970W. Buczynski331111113
WJul 23 · 12:15R. Gajda521181110123W. Buczynski47811612102
WJul 23 · 08:35R. Gajda351111133W. Buczynski2155110
WJun 10 · 12:45R. Gajda48961111113W. Buczynski4111117482
LJun 10 · 10:20R. Gajda341011761W. Buczynski4112711113
LJun 9 · 12:45R. Gajda401411781W. Buczynski4016211113
WJun 9 · 10:20R. Gajda531111137113W. Buczynski4585151162
R. Gajda10
WSep 30 · 09:30R. Gajda1.401111148113M. Rus2.7529161182LSep 30 · 08:20R. Gajda1.5211760B. Madej2.301311113LSep 30 · 06:45R. Gajda1.801211118132K. Schaniel1.91149811153LSep 30 · 05:30R. Gajda2.10116871M. Sikon1.6571111113LSep 29 · 13:55R. Gajda1.1461090I. Szymanski5.001112113WSep 29 · 12:40R. Gajda1.5311116113K. Kowalski2.38681191WSep 29 · 11:25R. Gajda1.57111011143R. Idaczyk2.259128121LSep 29 · 10:10P. Przewlocki1.9111122133R. Gajda1.8061011111LSep 29 · 09:25R. Gajda1.8011119952K. Schaniel1.91581111113LSep 29 · 07:45R. Gajda2.1071391192P. Przewlocki1.671111117113
W. Buczynski10
LSep 30 · 11:55K. Schaniel1.651111113W. Buczynski2.056780WSep 30 · 09:55W. Buczynski2.2713911113M. Sikon1.571111871WSep 30 · 08:45M. Rus2.201191011102W. Buczynski1.57711126123LSep 30 · 07:30B. Madej2.4071211113W. Buczynski1.511110781WSep 30 · 05:55K. Schaniel1.841110111192W. Buczynski1.86131285113WSep 28 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek1.917121151W. Buczynski1.8011148113WSep 28 · 13:30W. Buczynski2.63111414113S. Szostok1.445121691LSep 28 · 12:15I. Szymanski1.8391111113W. Buczynski1.83114671LSep 28 · 11:00W. Jozala1.8313511113W. Buczynski1.831111541LSep 28 · 09:25P. Przewlocki1.73111156123W. Buczynski2.00851111102
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