TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Hrncir vs Marek Kulisek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81112101191012511
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMarek Kulisek to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Hrncir above · Marek Kulisek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 99 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Marek Kulisek at 54.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hrncir 6–9 Marek Kulisek Jan Hrncir has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5254.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kulisek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Kulisek
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrncir 1528 vs Kulisek 1616
Kulisek
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrncir 40% vs Kulisek 60%
Kulisek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrncir 50% vs Kulisek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrncir -2 · Kulisek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kulisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrncir 2.00 / Kulisek 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Kulisek)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13221170
Hrncir2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 8 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back38% 3 of 8
Kulisek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 59 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it76% 42 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrncir4wins
AwayKulisek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKulisek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrncir50%3 of 6
AwayKulisek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrncir6Kulisek4n = 10Hrncir took 6 of 10
S2Hrncir4Kulisek6n = 10Kulisek took 6 of 10
S3Hrncir4Kulisek6n = 10Kulisek took 6 of 10
S4Hrncir4Kulisek6n = 10Kulisek took 6 of 10
S5Hrncir2Kulisek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrncirKulisekH − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.543.4−1.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrncirKulisekBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 195 vs 392 / 87454.4%44.9%106 / 195 vs 392 / 874Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KulisekHrncir 2.00/Kulisek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Kulisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kulisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 17 · 19:50J. Hrncir4311781252M. Kulisek485111110113
WMar 13 · 18:25J. Hrncir511181011113M. Kulisek4571112782
LDec 10 · 23:00J. Hrncir3971111372M. Kulisek49119711113
LDec 10 · 21:25J. Hrncir31961151M. Kulisek4211119113
WNov 26 · 23:00J. Hrncir4061111123M. Kulisek311164101
WNov 26 · 21:50J. Hrncir521111811113M. Kulisek5099111382
LNov 19 · 23:00J. Hrncir4011101361M. Kulisek4461215113
WNov 19 · 20:50J. Hrncir4213117113M. Kulisek381171191
LNov 4 · 20:50J. Hrncir36881281M. Kulisek43111110113
LOct 2 · 22:25J. Hrncir411191291M. Kulisek4481114113
J. Hrncir10
LSep 30 · 20:55J. Hrncir1.5779111152J. Hendrych2.25111196113LSep 30 · 18:55J. Hrncir1.737101121M. Sulc2.0011128113LSep 23 · 22:23O. Fiklik1.671771111113J. Hrncir2.07151161352WSep 23 · 20:55A. Rek1.57611101152J. Hrncir2.25119126113LSep 23 · 20:25O. Fiklik1.671112143J. Hrncir2.10810120WSep 23 · 19:25J. Hrncir1.831211113M. Sulc1.8310770WSep 16 · 18:04M. Sulc2.10511591J. Hrncir1.6711811113WSep 16 · 16:55J. Volek2.00128100J. Hrncir1.731411123LSep 16 · 16:25A. Kosacky1.441112113J. Hrncir2.6361070LSep 16 · 15:25J. Hrncir1.80117961M. Sulc1.9181111113
M. Kulisek10
WSep 30 · 19:25J. Hendrych2.509101171M. Kulisek1.5011124113LSep 29 · 21:48M. Kulisek2.50531191A. Kosacky1.5011119113WSep 29 · 20:50M. Kulisek3.0051111113A. Kosacky1.36114581WSep 29 · 19:20M. Sulc2.25127551M. Kulisek1.57101111113LSep 29 · 18:50O. Fiklik2.00118711113M. Kulisek1.7391111962LSep 28 · 21:53M. Kulisek1.8081411662O. Fiklik1.911112811113WSep 28 · 20:55O. Fiklik1.9161170M. Kulisek1.801113113LSep 28 · 20:25P. Benes1.53121111113M. Kulisek2.38148771LSep 28 · 19:25M. Kulisek2.754870A. Kosacky1.401111113LSep 27 · 22:38M. Kulisek3.0065110A. Kosacky1.361111133
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