TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Raska vs Vladislav Reska 0-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611611––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:11 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Raska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Raska above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-10
Point 53 set 3, 6-10 · our read held Michal Raska at 54.0%
53 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Michal Raska 9–8 Vladislav Reska Vladislav Reska has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:1154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Raska
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Raska 1494 vs Reska 1406
Raska
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Raska 60% vs Reska 40%
Raska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Raska 40% vs Reska 20%
Raska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Raska -1 · Reska -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Raska) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reska form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRaska 1.80 / Reska 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Raska)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13220866
Raska1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite46% won 27 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it56% 18 of 32
Reska1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 54 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRaska5wins
AwayReska5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRaska50%4 of 8
AwayReskan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Raska8Reska2n = 10Raska took 8 of 10
S2Raska4Reska6n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S3Raska7Reska3n = 10Raska took 7 of 10
S4Raska4Reska4n = 8split evenly
S5Raska0Reska3n = 3Reska took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRaskaReskaRaska − ReskaBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.836.3+2.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRaskaReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 510 vs 261 / 52347.5%49.9%242 / 510 vs 261 / 523Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RaskaRaska 1.80/Reska 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Raska · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 18:45M. Raska4611611992V. Reska48611911113
WAug 16 · 21:15M. Raska3911611113V. Reska25311831
WAug 16 · 20:10M. Raska4041311123V. Reska3711115101
WJun 21 · 17:40M. Raska371115113V. Reska2541380
WJun 13 · 08:45M. Raska4111811113V. Reska28411491
WJun 13 · 07:45M. Raska341211113V. Reska1910630
LMay 30 · 19:15M. Raska42111137102V. Reska47851111123
LMay 28 · 20:45M. Raska42115131122V. Reska50611157113
LMay 28 · 20:15M. Raska34891161V. Reska4111118113
LMay 6 · 20:10M. Raska331110841V. Reska4391211113
M. Raska10
WSep 30 · 19:45F. Theodor1.5048111132M. Raska2.50111199113WSep 30 · 19:15K. Zeman2.105480M. Raska1.671111113LSep 28 · 09:15M. Raska2.75811821R. Sedlacek1.4011811113WSep 28 · 08:10D. Vitasek1.83121161572M. Raska1.831471113113WSep 28 · 07:10M. Raska2.751110115113R. Sedlacek1.4091291182WSep 28 · 05:40T. Krenek1.401191191M. Raska2.7591113113LSep 24 · 20:44M. Raska2.00119118142D. Branny1.73911511163WSep 24 · 19:45M. Raska2.001111113D. Branny1.734890LSep 24 · 18:45M. Raska1.9111611992V. Reska1.80611911113LSep 24 · 17:45M. Raska2.0011121191J. Przybyla1.7341413113
V. Reska10
LSep 30 · 18:45F. Theodor1.80111113143V. Reska1.9161311121LSep 29 · 21:15V. Reska1.805760F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor1.918811111V. Reska1.8011119133LSep 29 · 19:15V. Reska2.101011114122D. Branny1.67129711143WSep 29 · 17:45L. Lasota1.679890V. Reska2.101111113LSep 27 · 20:39O. Skvor1.61911212113V. Reska2.20119111082LSep 27 · 20:15V. Reska1.735790O. Skvor2.001111113LSep 27 · 18:45D. Branny1.6781611113V. Reska2.101114591LSep 27 · 18:15T. Molin1.571112113V. Reska2.2561090WSep 24 · 18:45M. Raska1.9111611992V. Reska1.80611911113
Upcoming Matches
M. Raska
Nothing scheduled
V. Reska
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