TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Filip Theodor vs Vladislav Reska 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116111313111412––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:44 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Vladislav Reska below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 91 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Filip Theodor at 55.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 10–8 Vladislav Reska Vladislav Reska has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:4455.7%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
clears by 0.1pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Theodor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-8 in 18
Theodor
Correct
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1538 vs Reska 1423
Theodor
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 80% vs Reska 60%
Theodor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 90% vs Reska 30%
Theodor
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor +2 · Reska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Theodor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Theodor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 1.80 / Reska 1.909
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Theodor)+0.1pp
TT Cup · #13220864
Theodor1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite39% won 11 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Reska1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 54 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTheodor5wins
AwayReska5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTheodor83.3%5 of 6
AwayReska100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Theodor6Reska4n = 10Theodor took 6 of 10
S2Theodor5Reska5n = 10split evenly
S3Theodor4Reska6n = 10Reska took 6 of 10
S4Theodor1Reska4n = 5Reska took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTheodorReskaT − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.535.2+0.3per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorReskaBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 192 vs 262 / 52449%50%94 / 192 vs 262 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorTheodor 1.80/Reska 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 21:15F. Theodor331111113V. Reska185760
LSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor388811111V. Reska4411119133
WSep 23 · 19:45F. Theodor53148911113V. Reska43121111632
LSep 10 · 21:15F. Theodor226880V. Reska331111113
WSep 10 · 19:40F. Theodor48121177113V. Reska43105111162
WSep 7 · 14:15F. Theodor341111123V. Reska2284100
WAug 27 · 21:10F. Theodor351113113V. Reska2771190
LAug 27 · 17:40F. Theodor31811661V. Reska4211911113
LAug 9 · 19:15F. Theodor34154961V. Reska46131111113
LJul 27 · 18:40F. Theodor2798100V. Reska341111123
F. Theodor10
WSep 30 · 17:45F. Theodor1.831111113K. Zeman1.835470WSep 29 · 21:15V. Reska1.805760F. Theodor1.911111113LSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor1.918811111V. Reska1.8011119133WSep 29 · 18:45L. Lasota1.7381011111F. Theodor2.0011125133WSep 29 · 18:15D. Branny1.6111711101F. Theodor2.2041113123WSep 23 · 21:20F. Theodor2.001111123K. Zeman1.7337100WSep 23 · 19:45V. Reska1.67121111632F. Theodor2.10148911113WSep 23 · 19:15P. Chvojka1.911041381F. Theodor1.80121111113WSep 23 · 18:15F. Theodor2.00891112123K. Zeman1.731111610102WSep 21 · 17:08K. Przeczek1.73911731F. Theodor2.0011511113
V. Reska10
WSep 30 · 18:15M. Raska1.809660V. Reska1.911111113LSep 29 · 21:15V. Reska1.805760F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 29 · 20:15F. Theodor1.918811111V. Reska1.8011119133LSep 29 · 19:15V. Reska2.101011114122D. Branny1.67129711143WSep 29 · 17:45L. Lasota1.679890V. Reska2.101111113LSep 27 · 20:39O. Skvor1.61911212113V. Reska2.20119111082LSep 27 · 20:15V. Reska1.735790O. Skvor2.001111113LSep 27 · 18:45D. Branny1.6781611113V. Reska2.101114591LSep 27 · 18:15T. Molin1.571112113V. Reska2.2561090LSep 23 · 19:45V. Reska1.67121111632F. Theodor2.10148911113
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