TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Maslovskyi vs Mykolay Treschetka 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111513115116––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:45 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Maslovskyi to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Maslovskyi above · Mykolay Treschetka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 81 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Oleksandr Maslovskyi at 62.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Maslovskyi 96–44 Mykolay Treschetka Mykolay Treschetka has won 44 of their 140 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4562.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Maslovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
96-44 in 140
Maslovskyi
Correct
gap of 52 in 140, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maslovskyi 1131 vs Treschetka 1132
Treschetka
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maslovskyi 40% vs Treschetka 20%
Maslovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maslovskyi 40% vs Treschetka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maslovskyi -2 · Treschetka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Maslovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Treschetka form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaslovskyi 1.533 / Treschetka 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Maslovskyi)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218804
Maslovskyi1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 111 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it85% 76 of 89
Treschetka2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 83 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back21% 25 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaslovskyi8wins
AwayTreschetka2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaslovskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaslovskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayTreschetka25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maslovskyi6Treschetka4n = 10Maslovskyi took 6 of 10
S2Maslovskyi6Treschetka4n = 10Maslovskyi took 6 of 10
S3Maslovskyi7Treschetka3n = 10Maslovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Maslovskyi4Treschetka3n = 7Maslovskyi took 4 of 7
S5Maslovskyi3Treschetka1n = 4Maslovskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaslovskyiTreschetkaM − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.436.7+4.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaslovskyiTreschetkaBasisWin rate · lifetime429 / 865 vs 469 / 93949.6%50%429 / 865 vs 469 / 939Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaslovskyiMaslovskyi 1.53/Treschetka 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Maslovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maslovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 28 · 07:25O. Maslovskyi351112123M. Treschetka27710100
WSep 25 · 06:55O. Maslovskyi46761111113M. Treschetka4211118932
WSep 24 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4481213113M. Treschetka4111101191
LSep 23 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi4267111172M. Treschetka50111189113
WSep 20 · 16:53O. Maslovskyi331111113M. Treschetka185670
WSep 18 · 07:25O. Maslovskyi4312119113M. Treschetka341051181
WSep 3 · 06:55O. Maslovskyi50111189113M. Treschetka4165111182
LSep 2 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi27115471M. Treschetka3851111113
WAug 31 · 06:55O. Maslovskyi531111119113M. Treschetka3913461152
O. Maslovskyi10
LSep 30 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.386450M. Dunas1.531111113LSep 28 · 11:25O. Maslovskyi2.3811611632M. Dunas1.53711811113LSep 28 · 09:25H. Oliynyk1.611111113O. Maslovskyi2.208040WSep 28 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.25710100O. Maslovskyi1.571112123LSep 28 · 06:25O. Maslovskyi2.3810650V. Salivonchyk1.531211113WSep 28 · 05:25A. Nikolenko3.0011118692O. Maslovskyi1.36821111113LSep 25 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.8387100M. Dunas1.831111123WSep 25 · 08:55H. Oliynyk1.40810110O. Maslovskyi2.751112133LSep 25 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi4.001371381O. Maksymkiv1.22151111113WSep 25 · 06:55M. Treschetka2.2511118932O. Maslovskyi1.57761111113
M. Treschetka10
LSep 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka4.338540H. Oliynyk1.201111113WSep 28 · 08:55M. Treschetka1.5311411113A. Nikolenko2.38911961LSep 28 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.25710100O. Maslovskyi1.571112123LSep 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.575511101M. Dunas2.2511116123LSep 28 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.1086100V. Salivonchyk1.671111123LSep 25 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.221111113M. Treschetka4.009850LSep 25 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.75811111052M. Vivatenko1.40118712113WSep 25 · 08:25M. Treschetka1.5711911113M. Dunas2.25911971LSep 25 · 06:55M. Treschetka2.2511118932O. Maslovskyi1.57761111113WSep 25 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.501181193O. Maksymkiv2.50811741
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