TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Trefny vs Jakub Stolfa 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119411118––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 71 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Jan Trefny at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 4–2 Jakub Stolfa Jakub Stolfa has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Trefny beat Stolfa 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Trefny
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Trefny
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1595 vs Stolfa 1633
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 80% vs Stolfa 20%
Trefny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 60% vs Stolfa 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +4 · Stolfa +1
Trefny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Trefny) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.80 / Stolfa 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Trefny)+2.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13215623
Trefny1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 33 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Stolfa1.90
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 67 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back35% 25 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTrefny4wins
AwayStolfa2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderTrefny leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStolfa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny2Stolfa4n = 6Stolfa took 4 of 6
S2Trefny3Stolfa3n = 6split evenly
S3Trefny4Stolfa2n = 6Trefny took 4 of 6
S4Trefny4Stolfa0n = 4Trefny took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricTrefnyStolfaT − SBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match37.736.3+1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 141 vs 215 / 41151.8%52.3%73 / 141 vs 215 / 411Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.80/Stolfa 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 29 · 07:30J. Trefny44101111123J. Stolfa341266101
WSep 28 · 21:00J. Trefny331111113J. Stolfa136610
LSep 28 · 19:30J. Trefny4278111152J. Stolfa49111197113
LSep 28 · 12:00J. Trefny23310100J. Stolfa351112123
WAug 18 · 09:30J. Trefny3811411123J. Stolfa399119101
WAug 18 · 06:00J. Trefny46311912113J. Stolfa48117111092
J. Trefny10
WSep 29 · 08:30V. Cermak1.258119101J. Trefny3.7511811123WSep 29 · 07:30J. Trefny2.00101111123J. Stolfa1.731266101WSep 29 · 06:30M. Sobisek1.6171070J. Trefny2.201112113WSep 28 · 21:00J. Stolfa1.446610J. Trefny2.631111113LSep 28 · 20:30R. Pavelka1.91101111113J. Trefny1.80127981LSep 28 · 19:30J. Trefny2.6378111152J. Stolfa1.44111197113LSep 28 · 18:30T. Janata1.4011811113J. Trefny2.75211661WSep 28 · 13:00J. Trefny1.5311111123L. Stacho2.387116101LSep 28 · 12:00J. Stolfa1.911112123J. Trefny1.80310100WSep 28 · 11:00L. Stacho2.20481181J. Trefny1.6111118113
J. Stolfa10
WSep 29 · 08:00J. Stolfa1.531211113M. Sobisek2.3810770LSep 29 · 07:30J. Trefny2.00101111123J. Stolfa1.731266101LSep 29 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.258115101V. Cermak1.5711711123LSep 28 · 21:00J. Stolfa1.446610J. Trefny2.631111113LSep 28 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.739970T. Janata2.001111113WSep 28 · 19:30J. Trefny2.6378111152J. Stolfa1.44111197113WSep 28 · 18:00J. Stolfa1.611111113R. Pavelka2.209770WSep 28 · 13:30J. Stolfa1.4371111113M. Kolar2.60115681WSep 28 · 12:00J. Stolfa1.911112123J. Trefny1.80310100WSep 28 · 11:30M. Kolar2.758111291J. Stolfa1.4011914103
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