TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Nowak vs Lukasz Oracz 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115611116411116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:31 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Nowak above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 82 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Lukasz Oracz at 62.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nowak 12–19 Lukasz Oracz Jakub Nowak has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:31What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-19 in 31
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1278 vs Oracz 1352
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 20% vs Oracz 40%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 50% vs Oracz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -1 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Oracz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.38 / Oracz 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Oracz)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13215494
Nowak2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 242 of 662
Down 0–1, comes back21% 84 of 395
Down 0–2, comes back9% 20 of 232
Oracz1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 363 of 577
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it81% 284 of 349
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayOracz7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowak75%3 of 4
AwayOracz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak4Oracz5n = 9Oracz took 5 of 9
S2Nowak4Oracz5n = 9Oracz took 5 of 9
S3Nowak3Oracz6n = 9Oracz took 6 of 9
S4Nowak1Oracz3n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakOraczN − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match31.635.8−4.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime673 / 1756 vs 846 / 153938.3%55%673 / 1756 vs 846 / 1539Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OraczNowak 2.38/Oracz 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 23 · 02:35J. Nowak153660L. Oracz331111113
LSep 9 · 02:35J. Nowak2358100L. Oracz341111123
LSep 8 · 18:10J. Nowak4111851162L. Oracz49811118113
WJul 24 · 00:00J. Nowak331111113L. Oracz216690
LJul 15 · 04:00J. Nowak174490L. Oracz331111113
LJul 15 · 00:00J. Nowak36711991L. Oracz4011711113
WJul 12 · 17:05J. Nowak331111113L. Oracz228770
LJul 12 · 08:45J. Nowak397126141L. Oracz48111011163
WJul 5 · 07:10J. Nowak471110114113L. Oracz4291261142
J. Nowak10
LSep 29 · 15:50M. Koczyba1.501111143J. Nowak2.5097120WSep 25 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.7194100J. Nowak2.001111123LSep 25 · 07:35J. Nowak3.455340M. Lebek1.251111113LSep 25 · 06:25P. Adamus1.351111123J. Nowak2.8578100LSep 25 · 05:10P. Polok1.2611911113J. Nowak3.15811471WSep 25 · 03:35Y. Fomin1.558980J. Nowak2.251111113WSep 25 · 02:45P. Adamus1.37101111111J. Nowak2.8012513133WSep 25 · 01:35J. Nowak1.5311116113M. Lebek2.36991171WSep 25 · 00:25M. Tkocz1.207770J. Nowak3.901111113LSep 24 · 23:10P. Polok1.121111113J. Nowak5.209760
L. Oracz10
WSep 29 · 15:00P. Slosarczyk3.002470L. Oracz1.361111113LSep 29 · 04:20L. Oracz2.30911731J. Pruszkowski1.5511811113LSep 29 · 03:05L. Oracz1.758760D. Dytko1.901111113LSep 29 · 01:30L. Oracz1.7012560O. Sokolowski2.001411113WSep 29 · 00:30M. Adamus2.109970L. Oracz1.651111113WSep 28 · 23:50L. Oracz1.95815611113K. Adamus1.75111311672WSep 28 · 22:20L. Oracz1.8511118113M. Adamus1.80691161WSep 28 · 21:05L. Oracz1.711111113D. Dytko2.004780LSep 28 · 19:55L. Oracz1.651110120O. Sokolowski2.101312143LSep 28 · 18:45J. Pruszkowski1.491411113L. Oracz2.4512960
Upcoming Matches
J. Nowak
Sep 29 · 18:10J. Nowak2.20P. Gumulinski1.61—Sep 29 · 18:55J. Nowak1.67P. Slosarczyk2.10—Sep 29 · 19:40J. Nowak2.00O. Sokolowski1.73—Sep 29 · 21:00J. Nowak2.38L. Oracz1.53—Sep 29 · 22:10J. Nowak2.25M. Koczyba1.57—Sep 29 · 23:45J. Nowak2.00O. Sokolowski1.73—Sep 30 · 01:00J. Nowak1.67P. Slosarczyk2.10—Sep 30 · 02:35J. Nowak2.00P. Gumulinski1.73—
L. Oracz
Sep 29 · 17:20L. Oracz1.57O. Sokolowski2.25—Sep 29 · 19:20L. Oracz2.00P. Gumulinski1.73—Sep 29 · 20:05L. Oracz2.00M. Koczyba1.73—Sep 29 · 21:00L. Oracz1.53J. Nowak2.38—Sep 29 · 22:35L. Oracz1.28P. Slosarczyk3.50—Sep 29 · 23:20L. Oracz1.91M. Koczyba1.80—Sep 30 · 01:25L. Oracz1.91P. Gumulinski1.80—Sep 30 · 02:10L. Oracz1.57O. Sokolowski2.25—Sep 30 · 21:35L. Oracz—A. Burkacki——Sep 30 · 22:25L. Oracz—P. Kurek——
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