TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marian Lebek vs Jakub Kaczmarek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161012115116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:47 and never touched: 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
1161012115116––
H2H Marian Lebek 61–20 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 20 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
61-20 in 81
Lebek
Correct
gap of 41 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1403 vs Kaczmarek 1314
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 40% vs Kaczmarek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 50% vs Kaczmarek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek -1 · Kaczmarek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Lebek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.27 / Kaczmarek 3.25
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lebek)-8.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13214978
Lebek1.27
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 238 of 381
Up 2–0, closes it97% 162 of 167
Up 1–0, closes it82% 211 of 256
Kaczmarek3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 173 of 496
Down 0–1, comes back18% 54 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 177
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek8wins
AwayKaczmarek2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek88.9%8 of 9
AwayKaczmarekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek9Kaczmarek1n = 10Lebek took 9 of 10
S2Lebek9Kaczmarek1n = 10Lebek took 9 of 10
S3Lebek7Kaczmarek3n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S4Lebek2Kaczmarek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekKaczmarekL − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.227.9+8.3per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime850 / 1462 vs 501 / 133558.1%37.5%850 / 1462 vs 501 / 1335Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LebekLebek 1.27/Kaczmarek 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 03:10M. Lebek4311118133J. Kaczmarek365911111
WSep 24 · 04:25M. Lebek331111113J. Kaczmarek188280
WSep 18 · 07:10M. Lebek341211113J. Kaczmarek2710890
LSep 16 · 03:10M. Lebek38911991J. Kaczmarek4111811113
WSep 10 · 04:20M. Lebek361114113J. Kaczmarek2591240
WSep 9 · 04:25M. Lebek331111113J. Kaczmarek206590
WSep 3 · 07:10M. Lebek331111113J. Kaczmarek226880
WAug 28 · 04:25M. Lebek3911512113J. Kaczmarek322111091
WAug 26 · 03:10M. Lebek331111113J. Kaczmarek115330
LAug 13 · 05:50M. Lebek4011116662J. Kaczmarek47861111113
M. Lebek10
LSep 29 · 04:00W. Urban2.60751111113M. Lebek1.4211117692WSep 25 · 08:20P. Polok1.757890M. Lebek1.901111113WSep 25 · 07:35J. Nowak3.455340M. Lebek1.251111113LSep 25 · 05:35Y. Fomin2.4081111113M. Lebek1.50116861LSep 25 · 04:50P. Adamus1.70611811113M. Lebek1.9511311882WSep 25 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek4.105911111M. Lebek1.1811118133LSep 25 · 02:20P. Polok2.351213113M. Lebek1.50101190LSep 25 · 01:35J. Nowak1.5311116113M. Lebek2.36991171WSep 24 · 23:35G. Jurowicz2.7581030M. Lebek1.371112113WSep 24 · 22:50M. Tkocz2.405680M. Lebek1.501111113
J. Kaczmarek10
LSep 29 · 05:35A. Ruszkiewicz1.731111113J. Kaczmarek1.988680LSep 29 · 03:10M. Sikon1.701110815153J. Kaczmarek2.055121113132LSep 28 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek1.917121151W. Buczynski1.8011148113WSep 28 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek1.361161110113I. Szymanski3.0071171262LSep 28 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek1.807370W. Jozala1.911111113WSep 28 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek1.73118117123P. Przewlocki2.00911811102WSep 28 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek2.501111173S. Szostok1.5078150LSep 28 · 08:10J. Kaczmarek2.50101070S. Szostok1.501212113LSep 28 · 06:30P. Przewlocki1.918131111113J. Kaczmarek1.8011154792LSep 25 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek4.105911111M. Lebek1.1811118133
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