TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Oracz vs Kacper Adamus 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111513611116117
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:47 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeKacper Adamus to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
8111513611116117
H2H Lukasz Oracz 23–33 Kacper Adamus Lukasz Oracz has won 23 of their 56 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Oracz beat Adamus 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:47What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-33 in 56
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 10 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1343 vs Adamus 1376
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Adamus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Adamus 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +2 · Adamus +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Adamus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.95 / Adamus 1.75
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Adamus)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13214115
Oracz1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 123 of 289
Down 0–1, comes back22% 36 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 88
Adamus1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 354 of 576
Up 2–0, closes it97% 194 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it79% 285 of 360
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz4wins
AwayAdamus6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdamus leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz80%4 of 5
AwayAdamus100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Oracz4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Oracz3Adamus7n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S4Oracz3Adamus4n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S5Oracz2Adamus1n = 3Oracz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczAdamusO − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.939.0−1.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime846 / 1539 vs 924 / 170055%54.4%846 / 1539 vs 924 / 1700Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusOracz 1.95/Adamus 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.7%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 28 · 17:55L. Oracz351311113K. Adamus2911990
LSep 1 · 11:55L. Oracz48811711112K. Adamus50118117133
LSep 1 · 05:55L. Oracz367111171K. Adamus4211713113
LJul 24 · 01:10L. Oracz248970K. Adamus331111113
WJul 9 · 22:50L. Oracz4011711113K. Adamus32911751
LJun 16 · 13:10L. Oracz369116101K. Adamus3911511123
WJun 16 · 05:30L. Oracz521110911113K. Adamus4691211772
WJun 12 · 01:10L. Oracz49135119113K. Adamus47111161182
LJun 5 · 02:00L. Oracz2710890K. Adamus341211113
LJun 3 · 13:10L. Oracz32115971K. Adamus3851111113
L. Oracz10
WSep 29 · 00:30M. Adamus2.109970L. Oracz1.651111113WSep 28 · 22:20L. Oracz1.8511118113M. Adamus1.80691161WSep 28 · 21:05L. Oracz1.711111113D. Dytko2.004780LSep 28 · 19:55L. Oracz1.651110120O. Sokolowski2.101312143LSep 28 · 18:45J. Pruszkowski1.491411113L. Oracz2.4512960WSep 28 · 17:55L. Oracz1.901311113K. Adamus1.7511990LSep 26 · 02:10R. Szymik1.831111113L. Oracz1.837720LSep 26 · 01:25M. Baron2.2511911113L. Oracz1.57711581WSep 25 · 23:20K. Juszczyk1.678870L. Oracz2.101111113LSep 25 · 22:35O. Sokolowski2.63611116113L. Oracz1.4411691192
K. Adamus10
WSep 28 · 23:05J. Pruszkowski1.7215101211122K. Adamus2.021312149143WSep 28 · 21:55K. Adamus1.421111113O. Sokolowski2.657880LSep 28 · 20:45M. Adamus2.5511117113K. Adamus1.46771161WSep 28 · 19:30D. Dytko1.7599100K. Adamus1.951111123LSep 28 · 17:55L. Oracz1.901311113K. Adamus1.7511990LSep 27 · 17:05P. Gumulinski1.83121111113K. Adamus1.871071381WSep 27 · 15:55K. Adamus1.6511119113R. Wojcik2.05791191WSep 27 · 14:45R. Piechnik2.376670K. Adamus1.451111113LSep 27 · 13:30M. Lach1.771112113K. Adamus1.9381080LSep 27 · 11:55P. Jedrzejak2.071281111123K. Adamus1.68141199102
Upcoming Matches
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