TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Anton Shypilov vs Nazar Kovalchuk 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1165111210911119
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeNazar Kovalchuk to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAnton Shypilov above · Nazar Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Nazar Kovalchuk at 54.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Anton Shypilov 28–31 Nazar Kovalchuk Anton Shypilov has won 28 of their 59 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-31 in 59
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shypilov 1537 vs Kovalchuk 1707
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 170 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shypilov 40% vs Kovalchuk 60%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shypilov 40% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shypilov +2 · Kovalchuk +3
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shypilov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShypilov 1.91 / Kovalchuk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kovalchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13213636
Shypilov1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 163 of 365
Down 0–1, comes back29% 59 of 202
Down 0–2, comes back11% 12 of 108
Kovalchuk1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 168 of 287
Up 2–0, closes it93% 65 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it73% 110 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShypilov5wins
AwayKovalchuk5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShypilov100%4 of 4
AwayKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shypilov4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Shypilov1Kovalchuk9n = 10Kovalchuk took 9 of 10
S3Shypilov7Kovalchuk3n = 10Shypilov took 7 of 10
S4Shypilov6Kovalchuk2n = 8Shypilov took 6 of 8
S5Shypilov2Kovalchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricShypilovKovalchukS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.743.0−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShypilovKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 846 vs 403 / 77245.6%52.2%386 / 846 vs 403 / 772Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukShypilov 1.91/Kovalchuk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Shypilov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 26 · 15:05A. Shypilov47106111282N. Kovalchuk531211910113
LSep 23 · 23:15A. Shypilov354813101N. Kovalchuk45111111123
WSep 21 · 07:25A. Shypilov4011711113N. Kovalchuk31411881
LSep 20 · 07:35A. Shypilov23351141N. Kovalchuk4211119113
LSep 17 · 20:15A. Shypilov155550N. Kovalchuk331111113
LSep 16 · 21:45A. Shypilov49812111172N. Kovalchuk51111487113
WSep 15 · 23:15A. Shypilov3811511113N. Kovalchuk33611971
WAug 31 · 23:15A. Shypilov5710121311113N. Kovalchuk51121015862
WAug 26 · 21:15A. Shypilov53148911113N. Kovalchuk48121111772
A. Shypilov10
WSep 29 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.838121111113O. Mitla1.8311144872WSep 27 · 11:35A. Shypilov2.001111113M. Smyrnov1.737770LSep 27 · 09:35V. Boyko2.00111111133A. Shypilov1.739139111LSep 27 · 07:35A. Kotyk1.331111113A. Shypilov3.257680LSep 27 · 06:35A. Shypilov2.25118791O. Hura1.5791111113WSep 27 · 05:35V. Vlasenko1.80117881A. Shypilov1.9161111113WSep 26 · 19:05A. Shypilov2.2511611163O. Hura1.578119141LSep 26 · 17:05O. Mitla1.7311951183A. Shypilov2.0091111872LSep 26 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.801211910113A. Shypilov1.91106111282LSep 26 · 14:05A. Shypilov2.635121151R. Lazebnyi1.441114873
N. Kovalchuk10
WSep 29 · 20:45V. Vlasenko2.251111111072N. Kovalchuk1.57133712113WSep 28 · 03:00N. Kovalchuk1.57411711113O. Napirko2.2511811882WSep 28 · 01:00D. Neborak1.83951181N. Kovalchuk1.8311116113LSep 27 · 23:00S. Rak1.33312811113N. Kovalchuk3.25111011852LSep 27 · 22:00N. Kovalchuk1.619101151R. Lazebnyi2.2011128113WSep 27 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.40116991N. Kovalchuk2.7551111113WSep 26 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.3681111113O. Mitla3.00115641WSep 26 · 16:35N. Kovalchuk1.571111173V. Boyko2.2569150WSep 26 · 15:05N. Kovalchuk1.801211910113A. Shypilov1.91106111282WSep 26 · 13:35N. Kovalchuk1.61817911113O. Hura2.20111511642
Upcoming Matches
A. Shypilov
Sep 29 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.20M. Smyrnov1.61—Sep 30 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.10O. Hura1.67—Sep 30 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.10V. Vlasenko1.67—Sep 30 · 20:15A. Shypilov1.91N. Kovalchuk1.80—Sep 30 · 21:45A. Shypilov2.10O. Hura1.67—Sep 30 · 23:15A. Shypilov2.20M. Smyrnov1.61—Oct 1 · 00:45A. Shypilov2.00O. Mitla1.73—Oct 1 · 02:15A. Shypilov2.10V. Vlasenko1.67—
N. Kovalchuk
Sep 29 · 23:45N. Kovalchuk1.61O. Hura2.20—Sep 30 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.36O. Mitla3.00—Sep 30 · 03:15N. Kovalchuk1.53M. Smyrnov2.38—Sep 30 · 20:15N. Kovalchuk1.80A. Shypilov1.91—Sep 30 · 22:15N. Kovalchuk1.53M. Smyrnov2.38—Oct 1 · 00:15N. Kovalchuk1.61V. Vlasenko2.20—Oct 1 · 01:45N. Kovalchuk1.61O. Hura2.20—Oct 1 · 02:45N. Kovalchuk1.36O. Mitla3.00—
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