TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Kubiak vs Henryk Tkaczyk 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119115––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:35 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Kubiak above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 58 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 65.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Artur Kubiak 34–41 Henryk Tkaczyk Artur Kubiak has won 34 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:35What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tkaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-41 in 75
Tkaczyk
Wrong
gap of 7 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubiak 1323 vs Tkaczyk 1448
Tkaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubiak 20% vs Tkaczyk 40%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubiak 30% vs Tkaczyk 50%
Tkaczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubiak -3 · Tkaczyk +1
Kubiak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkaczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubiak 2.63 / Tkaczyk 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Tkaczyk)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13206315
Kubiak2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 71 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back16% 21 of 130
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 79
Tkaczyk1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 401 of 578
Up 2–0, closes it93% 223 of 240
Up 1–0, closes it84% 308 of 365
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubiak3wins
AwayTkaczyk7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubiak50%3 of 6
AwayTkaczyk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubiak6Tkaczyk4n = 10Kubiak took 6 of 10
S2Kubiak4Tkaczyk6n = 10Tkaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Kubiak3Tkaczyk7n = 10Tkaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Kubiak4Tkaczyk5n = 9Tkaczyk took 5 of 9
S5Kubiak1Tkaczyk3n = 4Tkaczyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubiakTkaczykK − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.842.5−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubiakTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime484 / 891 vs 1014 / 150254.3%67.5%484 / 891 vs 1014 / 1502Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykKubiak 2.63/Tkaczyk 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kubiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 21:35A. Kubiak341071161H. Tkaczyk4112117113
LSep 19 · 15:35A. Kubiak33119671H. Tkaczyk4071111113
LSep 7 · 23:50A. Kubiak30611581H. Tkaczyk3511211113
LSep 7 · 20:30A. Kubiak4811148692H. Tkaczyk538121111113
WAug 16 · 00:25A. Kubiak4411912123H. Tkaczyk3761110101
LAug 15 · 20:45A. Kubiak41410111152H. Tkaczyk49111278113
WJul 21 · 00:10A. Kubiak471141011113H. Tkaczyk4891112792
WJul 20 · 20:30A. Kubiak3911125113H. Tkaczyk308101111
LJul 19 · 00:00A. Kubiak2451090H. Tkaczyk341112113
LJul 18 · 16:00A. Kubiak5811141012112H. Tkaczyk587121214133
A. Kubiak10
LSep 27 · 15:50A. Kubiak2.206480A. Krezel1.611111113LSep 24 · 02:35J. Skorupa2.0010111011113A. Kubiak1.7312512772LSep 24 · 01:25A. Kubiak1.83510140Z. Nocun1.831112163WSep 24 · 00:10M. Lewczuk2.10167311112A. Kubiak1.671411118133LSep 23 · 22:55A. Staniczek3.40111184113A. Kubiak1.3053111192WSep 23 · 21:20K. Delikatny2.25611531A. Kubiak1.5411711113LSep 23 · 20:30M. Lewczuk1.7311134133A. Kubiak2.0071111111LSep 23 · 19:20A. Kubiak1.8311101161Z. Nocun1.8313128113LSep 23 · 18:10A. Skupinski2.63116165113A. Kubiak1.44611141182WSep 23 · 16:55A. Staniczek3.00121340A. Kubiak1.361415113
H. Tkaczyk10
WSep 27 · 15:25M. Lewczuk2.5071111952H. Tkaczyk1.50119711113LSep 27 · 05:05L. Bernacki2.50111210113H. Tkaczyk1.477101281LSep 27 · 03:55H. Tkaczyk1.13111189132J. Michalski5.50541111153WSep 27 · 02:45R. Wiza3.3051080H. Tkaczyk1.271112113LSep 27 · 01:30R. Szymik2.371411113H. Tkaczyk1.5212660WSep 26 · 23:55D. Fira1.90113911102H. Tkaczyk1.75711115123WSep 26 · 23:05R. Wiza2.107730H. Tkaczyk1.671111113LSep 26 · 21:55H. Tkaczyk1.32111177122J. Michalski2.95931111143LSep 26 · 20:45L. Bernacki2.7011811113H. Tkaczyk1.37711761WSep 26 · 19:30R. Szymik1.77117861H. Tkaczyk1.9541111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Kubiak
Sep 27 · 17:45A. Kubiak1.44A. Szurgot2.63—Sep 27 · 18:30A. Kubiak1.83M. Lewczuk1.83—Sep 27 · 20:05A. Kubiak2.20G. Mucha1.61—Sep 27 · 21:45A. Kubiak—A. Szurgot——Sep 27 · 22:55A. Kubiak2.63H. Tkaczyk1.44—Sep 27 · 23:45A. Kubiak—A. Krezel——Sep 28 · 00:35A. Kubiak1.83M. Lewczuk1.83—Sep 28 · 02:10A. Kubiak2.20G. Mucha1.61—Sep 28 · 15:10A. Kubiak—J. Zelezik——Sep 28 · 16:25A. Kubiak—J. Cyndera——
H. Tkaczyk
Sep 27 · 18:10H. Tkaczyk1.36A. Krezel3.00—Sep 27 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.25G. Mucha3.75—Sep 27 · 20:30H. Tkaczyk1.14A. Szurgot5.00—Sep 27 · 21:20H. Tkaczyk1.50M. Lewczuk2.50—Sep 27 · 22:55H. Tkaczyk1.44A. Kubiak2.63—Sep 28 · 00:10H. Tkaczyk—A. Szurgot——Sep 28 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk1.25G. Mucha3.75—Sep 28 · 02:35H. Tkaczyk1.36A. Krezel3.00—Sep 28 · 15:00H. Tkaczyk—Z. Nocun——Sep 28 · 16:15H. Tkaczyk—M. Lewczuk——
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