TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Eliasz vs Bartlomiej Mrugala 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811611––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
711811611––––
H2H Adrian Eliasz 2–3 Bartlomiej Mrugala Adrian Eliasz has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mrugala beat Eliasz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:16What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Mrugala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Eliasz 1233 vs Mrugala 1267
Mrugala
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Eliasz 40% vs Mrugala 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Eliasz 30% vs Mrugala 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Eliasz -1 · Mrugala -3
Mrugala
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mrugala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mrugala form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsEliasz 1.93 / Mrugala 1.78
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mrugala)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13197596
Eliasz1.93
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 73 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back19% 24 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Mrugala1.78
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 53 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeEliasz2wins
AwayMrugala3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderMrugala leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeEliaszn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMrugala75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Eliasz1Mrugala4n = 5Mrugala took 4 of 5
S2Eliasz2Mrugala3n = 5Mrugala took 3 of 5
S3Eliasz3Mrugala2n = 5Eliasz took 3 of 5
S4Eliasz1Mrugala2n = 3Mrugala took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricEliaszMrugalaE − MBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match35.840.0−4.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricEliaszMrugalaBasisWin rate · lifetime348 / 929 vs 319 / 69337.5%46%348 / 929 vs 319 / 693Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaEliasz 1.93/Mrugala 1.78
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 25 · 20:30A. Eliasz3861111732B. Mrugala49117911113
WAug 21 · 22:55A. Eliasz4011711113B. Mrugala36811891
LAug 21 · 20:05A. Eliasz2811980B. Mrugala351311113
WJul 27 · 21:05A. Eliasz48711117123B. Mrugala47116911102
LJul 27 · 16:55A. Eliasz258980B. Mrugala331111113
A. Eliasz10
LSep 25 · 21:55A. Eliasz2.809117101K. Klocek1.3711611123WSep 25 · 21:30A. Eliasz1.851111113W. Gluszek1.858970LSep 25 · 20:30B. Mrugala1.71117911113A. Eliasz2.0061111732LSep 25 · 19:20A. Eliasz1.90881191M. Lukaszewski1.7511114113WSep 25 · 18:10P. Strus2.3511116852A. Eliasz1.50761111113LSep 25 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.621111113A. Eliasz2.157970LSep 25 · 15:25W. Gluszek1.71111179113A. Eliasz2.0095111152LSep 20 · 19:40D. Kotwica1.7151311113A. Eliasz2.001111881WSep 20 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.3281141192A. Eliasz3.05118119113LSep 20 · 18:10A. Eliasz2.5091141192A. Mugowski1.44118115113
B. Mrugala10
LSep 25 · 22:35K. Klocek1.4510111110113B. Mrugala2.5012631262LSep 25 · 22:15B. Mrugala1.68811791W. Gluszek2.0511711113LSep 25 · 21:05M. Lukaszewski1.95111111113B. Mrugala1.75881391WSep 25 · 20:30B. Mrugala1.71117911113A. Eliasz2.0061111732WSep 25 · 18:55B. Mrugala1.951111113P. Strus1.703560WSep 25 · 17:45B. Mrugala2.356101211113D. Szlubowski1.53111210982WSep 25 · 16:15B. Mrugala1.7011811113W. Gluszek2.05711271LSep 25 · 15:00B. Mrugala1.95611991M. Lukaszewski1.7511611113LSep 25 · 00:10B. Mrugala2.70129381J. Glanowski1.41101111113LSep 24 · 23:20B. Mrugala2.0031170J. Rolak1.731113113
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