TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jiri Cerny vs Jiri Volek 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
16141111191412––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:35 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Volek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Cerny above · Jiri Volek below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 88 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Jiri Volek at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Cerny 4–4 Jiri Volek Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:3554.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Volek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cerny 1512 vs Volek 1522
Volek
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cerny 60% vs Volek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cerny 60% vs Volek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cerny -1 · Volek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Volek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCerny 1.909 / Volek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Volek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13253737
Cerny1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 10 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Volek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeCerny4wins
AwayVolek4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCerny75%3 of 4
AwayVolek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cerny4Volek4n = 8split evenly
S2Cerny5Volek3n = 8Cerny took 5 of 8
S3Cerny2Volek6n = 8Volek took 6 of 8
S4Cerny2Volek4n = 6Volek took 4 of 6
S5Cerny2Volek1n = 3Cerny took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricCernyVolekC − VBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match36.640.1−3.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernyVolekBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 162 vs 39 / 8448.8%46.4%79 / 162 vs 39 / 84Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VolekCerny 1.91/Volek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Volek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cerny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 30 · 17:25J. Cerny3911116113J. Volek30591151
LAug 18 · 16:55J. Cerny27911431J. Volek4211911113
WJan 20 · 17:55J. Cerny4211118123J. Volek389811101
WNov 24 · 17:25J. Cerny52119118133J. Volek44311811112
LOct 21 · 15:55J. Cerny28121060J. Volek371412113
LSep 9 · 17:25J. Cerny167540J. Volek331111113
LAug 19 · 16:25J. Cerny4011114952J. Volek48691111113
WAug 14 · 15:25J. Cerny491011114133J. Volek49128711112
J. Cerny10
LOct 6 · 15:55J. Cerny1.918440P. Moravec1.801111113WOct 6 · 14:55J. Cerny1.801111114113M. Dvorak1.9191391172LSep 30 · 18:30D. Sochor2.25111169113J. Cerny1.5769111152WSep 30 · 17:25J. Volek1.80591151J. Cerny1.9111116113WSep 30 · 16:25J. Cerny1.7311411113M. Sochor2.00711791LSep 30 · 14:55D. Sochor2.251241111113J. Cerny1.5714117632WSep 29 · 18:30M. Dvorak1.91413111162J. Cerny1.80111546113WSep 29 · 17:25D. Tichy2.632411121J. Cerny1.4411113143WSep 29 · 16:25J. Cerny1.57116711113Z. Zahradka2.2581111782LSep 29 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.91111169113J. Cerny1.8098111142
J. Volek10
WOct 6 · 16:25M. Dvorak2.5011114892J. Volek1.50611111113WOct 6 · 15:25J. Volek2.251211113P. Moravec1.5710850WSep 30 · 18:00J. Volek1.8311119113M. Sochor1.83581141LSep 30 · 17:25J. Volek1.80591151J. Cerny1.9111116113LSep 30 · 15:55D. Sochor2.251111108153J. Volek1.57671211132WSep 30 · 15:25M. Sochor1.50781191J. Volek2.5011118113WSep 16 · 18:35J. Volek3.4071511133A. Kosacky1.3011136111LSep 16 · 16:55J. Volek2.00128100J. Hrncir1.731411123WSep 16 · 15:55J. Volek2.2581111113M. Sulc1.57118971WSep 16 · 14:55J. Volek3.751111113A. Kosacky1.259680
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.