TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bruno Mrowetz vs Jan Krupnik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118411811511––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:36 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBruno Mrowetz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingBruno Mrowetz above · Jan Krupnik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 69 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Bruno Mrowetz at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Bruno Mrowetz 19–26 Jan Krupnik Bruno Mrowetz has won 19 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:3654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Mrowetz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-26 in 45
Krupnik
Correct
gap of 7 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrowetz 1640 vs Krupnik 1683
Krupnik
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrowetz 60% vs Krupnik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrowetz 40% vs Krupnik 70%
Krupnik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrowetz +2 · Krupnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mrowetz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrowetz 1.80 / Krupnik 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mrowetz)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13225147
Mrowetz1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 76 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it75% 56 of 75
Krupnik1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 100 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrowetz5wins
AwayKrupnik5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrowetz57.1%4 of 7
AwayKrupnik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrowetz7Krupnik3n = 10Mrowetz took 7 of 10
S2Mrowetz3Krupnik7n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S3Mrowetz5Krupnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrowetz6Krupnik2n = 8Mrowetz took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrowetzKrupnikM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.135.5+1.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrowetzKrupnikBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 518 vs 485 / 93450.4%51.9%261 / 518 vs 485 / 934Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MrowetzMrowetz 1.80/Krupnik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mrowetz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 07:40B. Mrowetz28114851J. Krupnik4181111113
LSep 28 · 17:15B. Mrowetz44123711112J. Krupnik531011118133
WSep 28 · 14:15B. Mrowetz3911611113J. Krupnik31311981
WSep 23 · 13:08B. Mrowetz351113113J. Krupnik2471160
LSep 23 · 12:15B. Mrowetz185850J. Krupnik331111113
WSep 21 · 17:08B. Mrowetz4111118113J. Krupnik27351181
LSep 21 · 14:15B. Mrowetz5013991182J. Krupnik501111116113
WSep 3 · 11:40B. Mrowetz4291111113J. Krupnik27116641
LSep 1 · 06:45B. Mrowetz37981191J. Krupnik4011117113
WAug 12 · 11:40B. Mrowetz3711411113J. Krupnik29811371
B. Mrowetz10
WOct 1 · 06:40B. Mrowetz1.6711911113R. Benes2.10611771WOct 1 · 05:40B. Mrowetz1.731211119113E. Precek2.00107131192LSep 28 · 17:15B. Mrowetz1.73123711112J. Krupnik2.001011118133LSep 28 · 15:45F. Chaloupka1.837181111133B. Mrowetz1.83112058112WSep 28 · 15:15L. Kantor2.5012750B. Mrowetz1.501411113WSep 28 · 14:15B. Mrowetz1.7311611113J. Krupnik2.00311981LSep 28 · 12:39L. Dzida1.50145115113B. Mrowetz2.50121181132LSep 28 · 11:40B. Mrowetz1.531312651L. Dzida2.38111411113LSep 28 · 10:40B. Mrowetz1.5311119131R. Benes2.3871311153LSep 28 · 09:40B. Mrowetz1.4410990A. Kanak2.631211113
J. Krupnik10
WOct 1 · 07:10E. Precek2.2011611121J. Krupnik1.6131113143LOct 1 · 06:10J. Krupnik1.8399111182R. Benes1.83111197113WSep 28 · 20:48J. Krupnik1.501616113D. Velky Jr2.50141450LSep 28 · 19:45J. Gembala1.671111163J. Krupnik2.1097140WSep 28 · 19:15D. Velky Jr2.259990J. Krupnik1.571111113WSep 28 · 18:15J. Krupnik1.8351111113L. Slavik1.83116951WSep 28 · 17:15B. Mrowetz1.73123711112J. Krupnik2.001011118133WSep 28 · 16:15J. Krupnik1.501111113L. Kantor2.508960WSep 28 · 14:45F. Chaloupka1.738111081J. Krupnik2.0011612113LSep 28 · 14:15B. Mrowetz1.7311611113J. Krupnik2.00311981
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