TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Radek Neterda vs Jan Ruzicka 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611119811511––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:35 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Jan Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 72 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Jan Ruzicka at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 17–20 Jan Ruzicka Radek Neterda has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Neterda beat Ruzicka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:35What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-20 in 37
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1598 vs Ruzicka 1646
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 100% vs Ruzicka 80%
Neterda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 90% vs Ruzicka 70%
Neterda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda +6 · Ruzicka +1
Neterda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 2.00 / Ruzicka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ruzicka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13216688
Neterda2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Ruzicka1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 97 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it93% 55 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it85% 77 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda4wins
AwayRuzicka6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda66.7%2 of 3
AwayRuzicka71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda3Ruzicka7n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S2Neterda6Ruzicka4n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S3Neterda3Ruzicka7n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S4Neterda5Ruzicka2n = 7Neterda took 5 of 7
S5Neterda2Ruzicka3n = 5Ruzicka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaRuzickaN − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.242.7−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime233 / 455 vs 245 / 46451.2%52.8%233 / 455 vs 245 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaNeterda 2.00/Ruzicka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 11:05R. Neterda521213411123J. Ruzicka531411117102
LSep 25 · 10:35R. Neterda237970J. Ruzicka331111113
LSep 23 · 07:05R. Neterda47111161452J. Ruzicka55981116113
WSep 21 · 17:24R. Neterda46111410113J. Ruzicka336121231
LSep 21 · 16:05R. Neterda48131171162J. Ruzicka54159118113
LSep 19 · 12:05R. Neterda176470J. Ruzicka331111113
LSep 17 · 11:05R. Neterda501011101182J. Ruzicka48126127113
WSep 5 · 12:05R. Neterda50761111153J. Ruzicka47111175132
LAug 30 · 13:45R. Neterda347101161J. Ruzicka4211128113
WAug 30 · 11:05R. Neterda351111133J. Ruzicka2999110
R. Neterda10
WSep 29 · 12:35R. Neterda2.1051112113O. Pros1.671121061WSep 29 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.671411117102R. Neterda2.101213411123WSep 29 · 10:35J. Lovl1.737780R. Neterda2.001111113WSep 28 · 17:35M. Flesar2.75915391R. Neterda1.40111311113WSep 28 · 16:05R. Neterda1.44111214113M. Flesar2.639101641WSep 28 · 15:05R. Neterda1.611111113M. Chmelicek2.203460LSep 28 · 14:05R. Neterda1.7311771162T. Motacek2.00511114113WSep 25 · 13:04R. Neterda1.5311911113K. Lahodny2.38811561WSep 25 · 12:35R. Neterda1.831111113K. Lahodny1.836780WSep 25 · 11:05M. Holub1.91411111172R. Neterda1.80118913113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 29 · 12:05J. Ruzicka2.20117911113J. Lovl1.6181111252LSep 29 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.671411117102R. Neterda2.101213411123WSep 29 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.331111113O. Pros3.253790WSep 28 · 13:35M. Flesar2.206870J. Ruzicka1.611111113WSep 28 · 12:05T. Trnka1.836590J. Ruzicka1.831111113WSep 28 · 11:35D. Hons2.20116671J. Ruzicka1.6141111113LSep 28 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.3651111682M. Flesar3.00116811113WSep 28 · 09:18J. Ruzicka3.001111113O. Polak1.368760LSep 26 · 09:49J. Ruzicka1.83101070J. Lovl1.831212113WSep 26 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.571111113D. Hons2.258560
Upcoming Matches
R. Neterda
Nothing scheduled
J. Ruzicka
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