TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Rak vs Dmytro Neborak 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118115811118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:58 and never touched — 71.2% is still 71.2%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
71.2%
71.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Rak above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Rak at 71.2%
73 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Rak 7–2 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Rak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Rak
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rak 1827 vs Neborak 1738
Rak
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rak 100% vs Neborak 60%
Rak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rak 80% vs Neborak 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rak +5 · Neborak -1
Rak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Rak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRak 1.36 / Neborak 3.00
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Rak)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13203766
Rak1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 259 of 401
Up 2–0, closes it93% 126 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it81% 183 of 226
Neborak3.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 118 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back17% 31 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back9% 11 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeRak7wins
AwayNeborak2wins
1 of 9 to a deciderRak leads 7–2, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRak80%4 of 5
AwayNeborak25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rak5Neborak4n = 9Rak took 5 of 9
S2Rak5Neborak4n = 9Rak took 5 of 9
S3Rak7Neborak2n = 9Rak took 7 of 9
S4Rak5Neborak2n = 7Rak took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricRakNeborakR − NBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.633.2+6.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRakNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime532 / 961 vs 311 / 84255.4%36.9%532 / 961 vs 311 / 842Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakRak 1.36/Neborak 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.2%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 25 · 00:30S. Rak4211514123D. Neborak4181112101
LSep 22 · 07:35S. Rak341148111D. Neborak4161111133
LSep 21 · 14:05S. Rak366711121D. Neborak4111115143
WJul 21 · 07:25S. Rak49711911113D. Neborak3911611562
WJul 20 · 13:55S. Rak44111111113D. Neborak35713781
WJul 19 · 21:30S. Rak4071111113D. Neborak28115661
WJul 13 · 13:05S. Rak4391111123D. Neborak331175101
WJul 12 · 21:30S. Rak351111133D. Neborak2393110
WJul 7 · 07:55S. Rak331111113D. Neborak185940
S. Rak10
WSep 28 · 00:30S. Rak2.6311119113D. Pesternikov1.44691171WSep 27 · 23:00S. Rak1.33312811113N. Kovalchuk3.25111011852WSep 27 · 21:30S. Rak1.1712114113O. Napirko4.501051141WSep 27 · 20:00S. Rak1.3611311113R. Lazebnyi3.00911661WSep 26 · 11:05S. Rak1.4071111113R. Haiseniuk2.75116271LSep 26 · 09:05D. Pesternikov1.441711113S. Rak2.6315710WSep 26 · 08:05S. Rak1.531211113I. Romaniak2.3810880WSep 26 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.2511112662S. Rak1.57491111113LSep 26 · 05:35S. Rak1.677830D. Shcherbak2.101111113WSep 25 · 02:00S. Rak1.5731111113I. Kozachuk2.25113891
D. Neborak10
LSep 28 · 01:00D. Neborak1.83951181N. Kovalchuk1.8311116113WSep 28 · 00:00D. Neborak1.831112113R. Lazebnyi1.8381050WSep 27 · 22:30D. Neborak4.3311118123D. Pesternikov1.207911101LSep 27 · 20:30D. Neborak1.67951181O. Napirko2.1011115113WSep 25 · 18:05D. Neborak3.50821411113I. Kozachuk1.28111112692WSep 25 · 16:35D. Neborak4.331111127113D. Pesternikov1.2085141182WSep 25 · 15:05D. Neborak2.00121168113I. Romaniak1.73109111152WSep 25 · 13:35D. Neborak1.671111133R. Haiseniuk2.1035110WSep 25 · 12:05D. Neborak1.9141112113D. Shcherbak1.801151041LSep 25 · 02:30D. Neborak1.5068130R. Haiseniuk2.501111153
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