Daniel Branny vs Tomas Ogrocki 1-3

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 54 - H4 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Daniel Branny

Home

1.53

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

12101113411511––

Tomas Ogrocki

Away

2.38

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:10 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%

Graded at full time

Daniel Branny to win

56.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingDaniel Branny above · Tomas Ogrocki below

Set 1 · 12-10

Set 2 · 11-13

Set 3 · 4-11

Set 4 · 5-11

Point 77 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Daniel Branny at 56.1%

77 points played in total.

H2H Daniel Branny 11–6 Tomas Ogrocki Tomas Ogrocki has won 6 of their 17 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Branny

Branny 1.53/Ogrocki 2.38

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

56.1%

Branny · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Ogrocki won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:10

56.1%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533

short by 9.1pp

65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Branny

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

11-6 in 17

Branny

Wrong

gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Branny 1517 vs Ogrocki 1448

Branny

Wrong

both rated, 69 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Branny 60% vs Ogrocki 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Branny 60% vs Ogrocki 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Branny -1 · Ogrocki +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Branny) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Ogrocki: form 60%, the price implies 42%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBranny 1.533 / Ogrocki 2.375

Signal prob.56% / 44%

Edge (Branny)-9.1pp (anti-value)

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Branny beat Ogrocki 3-1.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeBranny7wins

AwayOgrocki3wins

5 of 10 to a deciderBranny leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeBranny85.7%6 of 7

AwayOgrocki66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Branny7Ogrocki3n = 10Branny took 7 of 10

S2Branny3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10

S3Branny6Ogrocki4n = 10Branny took 6 of 10

S4Branny5Ogrocki4n = 9Branny took 5 of 9

S5Branny4Ogrocki1n = 5Branny took 4 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricBrannyOgrockiB − OBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.239.3+4.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBrannyOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 382 vs 264 / 54952.1%48.1%199 / 382 vs 264 / 549Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.7per match

TT Cup · #13286677

Branny1.53

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite62% won 65 of 105

Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21

Up 1–0, closes it76% 40 of 53

Ogrocki2.38

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog42% won 72 of 170

Down 0–1, comes back29% 27 of 93

Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42

Daniel Branny vs Tomas Ogrocki 1-3 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Daniel Branny vs Tomas Ogrocki 1-3 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.