Tomas Kindl vs David Stusek 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 51 - H1 · Prague

Played Oct 12Finished

Tomas Kindl

Home

2.63

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

16149113111311117

David Stusek

Away

1.44

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:13 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%

Graded at full time

David Stusek to win

67.3%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingTomas Kindl above · David Stusek below

Set 1 · 16-14

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 3-11

Set 4 · 13-11

Set 5 · 11-7

Point 106 set 5, 11-7 · our read held David Stusek at 67.3%

106 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Kindl 1–2 David Stusek Tomas Kindl has won 1 of their 3 meetings.

Last 3 · 1–2Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Stusek

Kindl 2.63/Stusek 1.44

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

67.3%

Stusek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Kindl won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 07:13

67.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444

short by 2.0pp

69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Stusek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

1-2 in 3

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kindl 1507 vs Stusek 1575

Stusek

Wrong

both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kindl 40% vs Stusek 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kindl 20% vs Stusek 40%

Stusek

Wrong

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kindl -1 · Stusek +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Stusek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Stusek: form 40%, the price implies 69%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKindl 2.625 / Stusek 1.444

Signal prob.33% / 67%

Edge (Stusek)-2.0pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 3 meetings

HomeKindl1wins

AwayStusek2wins

2 of 3 to a deciderStusek leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kindl2Stusek1n = 3Kindl took 2 of 3

S2Kindl0Stusek3n = 3Stusek took 3 of 3

S3Kindl1Stusek2n = 3Stusek took 2 of 3

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home133%

2–3Decider, away133%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away133%

These 3 meetings

MetricKindlStusekK − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.343.3−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKindlStusekBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 476 vs 108 / 22049.2%49.1%234 / 476 vs 108 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.339.8per match

TT Cup · #13281635

Kindl2.63

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog43% won 55 of 128

Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 63

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29

Stusek1.44

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite59% won 31 of 53

Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16

Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26

Tomas Kindl vs David Stusek 3-2 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tomas Kindl vs David Stusek 3-2 · TT Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.