Martin Drabek vs Petr Maly 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Martin Drabek

Home

2.50

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

61111811131161210

Petr Maly

Away

1.50

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%

Graded at full time

Petr Maly to win

60.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMartin Drabek above · Petr Maly below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 11-13

Set 4 · 11-6

Set 5 · 12-10

Point 99 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Petr Maly at 60.1%

99 points played in total.

H2H Martin Drabek 5–5 Petr Maly Dead even across their 10 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Maly

Drabek 2.50/Maly 1.50

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

60.1%

Maly · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Drabek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 19:55

60.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50

short by 6.6pp

66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.50 (63%)

Maly

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

5-5 in 10

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Drabek 1391 vs Maly 1462

Maly

Wrong

both rated, 70 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Drabek 60% vs Maly 20%

Drabek

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Drabek 50% vs Maly 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Drabek +1 · Maly -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Maly) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Maly: form 20%, the price implies 67%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDrabek 2.50 / Maly 1.50

Signal prob.40% / 60%

Edge (Maly)-6.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeDrabek5wins

AwayMaly5wins

4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDrabek100%5 of 5

AwayMaly100%5 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Drabek5Maly5n = 10split evenly

S2Drabek4Maly6n = 10Maly took 6 of 10

S3Drabek5Maly5n = 10split evenly

S4Drabek4Maly2n = 6Drabek took 4 of 6

S5Drabek2Maly2n = 4split evenly

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away220%

These 10 meetings

MetricDrabekMalyD − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.640.4−1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDrabekMalyBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 129 vs 213 / 41036.4%52%47 / 129 vs 213 / 410Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.6per match

Setka Cup · #13281607

Drabek2.50

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog47% won 15 of 32

Down 0–1, comes back29% 4 of 14

Down 0–2, comes back25% 2 of 8

Maly1.50

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite53% won 55 of 104

Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29

Up 1–0, closes it66% 40 of 61

Martin Drabek vs Petr Maly 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Martin Drabek vs Petr Maly 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.