Andrii Fastov vs Denis Aldayev 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Andrii Fastov

Home

1.22

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 4

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

10127111210411––

Denis Aldayev

Away

4.00

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:26 and never touched: 81.0% is still 81.0%

Graded at full time

Andrii Fastov to win

81.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingAndrii Fastov above · Denis Aldayev below

Set 1 · 10-12

Set 2 · 7-11

Set 3 · 12-10

Set 4 · 4-11

Point 77 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Andrii Fastov at 81.0%

77 points played in total.

H2H Andrii Fastov 17–5 Denis Aldayev Denis Aldayev has won 5 of their 22 meetings.

Last 10 · 9–1Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Fastov

Fastov 1.22/Aldayev 4.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

81%

Fastov · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Aldayev won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 15:26

81.0%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222

short by 0.8pp

81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)

What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.22 (77%)

Fastov

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

17-5 in 22

Fastov

Wrong

gap of 12 in 22, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Fastov 1206 vs Aldayev 1022

Fastov

Wrong

both rated, 184 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Fastov 20% vs Aldayev 80%

Aldayev

Correct

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Fastov 50% vs Aldayev 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Fastov -4 · Aldayev -1

Fastov

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Fastov) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Aldayev: form 80%, the price implies 25%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsFastov 1.222 / Aldayev 4.00

Signal prob.81% / 19%

Edge (Fastov)-0.8pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeFastov9wins

AwayAldayev1wins

4 of 10 to a deciderFastov leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeFastov100%6 of 6

AwayAldayev25%1 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Fastov6Aldayev4n = 10Fastov took 6 of 10

S2Fastov7Aldayev3n = 10Fastov took 7 of 10

S3Fastov9Aldayev1n = 10Fastov took 9 of 10

S4Fastov4Aldayev3n = 7Fastov took 4 of 7

S5Fastov3Aldayev1n = 4Fastov took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home330%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricFastovAldayevF − ABasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.336.1+6.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricFastovAldayevBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 248 vs 116 / 27553.2%42.2%132 / 248 vs 116 / 275Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.2per match

Setka Cup · #13281587

Fastov1.22

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite76% won 73 of 96

Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47

Up 1–0, closes it89% 58 of 65

Aldayev4.00

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog31% won 26 of 83

Down 0–1, comes back15% 7 of 46

Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31

Andrii Fastov vs Denis Aldayev 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Andrii Fastov vs Denis Aldayev 1-3 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.