Rafael Turrini vs Luis Kraus 3-0 — Challenger Series TT

TT Lossbeater/Challenger Series TT

Challenger Series TTOchsenhausen, Germany

Played Oct 12Finished

Rafael Turrini

Home

1.17

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

9–1Last 10Won last 5

Final

3 – 0

Set by set

116117115––––

Luis Kraus

Away

4.50

At publish

Lost last 5

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Lost last 5

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:56 and never touched: 82.9% is still 82.9%

Graded at full time

Rafael Turrini to win

82.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingRafael Turrini above · Luis Kraus below

Set 1 · 11-6

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 11-5

Point 51 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Rafael Turrini at 82.9%

51 points played in total.

H2H Rafael Turrini 11–1 Luis Kraus Luis Kraus has won 1 of their 12 meetings.

Last 10 · 9–1Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Turrini

Turrini 1.17/Kraus 4.50

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

82.9%

Turrini · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–0

Turrini won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 16:56

82.9%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166

short by 2.9pp

85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.17 (79%)

Turrini

Correct

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

11-1 in 12

Turrini

Correct

gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Turrini 2029 vs Kraus 1420

Turrini

Correct

both rated, 609 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Turrini 100% vs Kraus 0%

Turrini

Correct

100pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Turrini 90% vs Kraus 20%

Turrini

Correct

70pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Turrini +5 · Kraus -5

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Turrini) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kraus: form 0%, the price implies 22%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsTurrini 1.166 / Kraus 4.50

Signal prob.83% / 17%

Edge (Turrini)-2.9pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeTurrini9wins

AwayKraus1wins

3 of 10 to a deciderTurrini leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeTurrini100%3 of 3

AwayKraus14.3%1 of 7

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Turrini3Kraus7n = 10Kraus took 7 of 10

S2Turrini8Kraus2n = 10Turrini took 8 of 10

S3Turrini6Kraus4n = 10Turrini took 6 of 10

S4Turrini7Kraus0n = 7Turrini took 7 of 7

S5Turrini3Kraus0n = 3Turrini took 3 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricTurriniKrausT − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.331.6+8.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricTurriniKrausBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 262 vs 66 / 19085.5%34.7%224 / 262 vs 66 / 190Avg sets wonper match2.71.5per matchAvg pointsper match37.632.2per match

Challenger Series TT · #13280144

Turrini1.17

90%won 9 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 5

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite87% won 60 of 69

Up 2–0, closes it100% 40 of 40

Up 1–0, closes it96% 48 of 50

Kraus4.50

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 5

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog27% won 18 of 66

Down 0–1, comes back8% 3 of 38

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 26

Rafael Turrini vs Luis Kraus 3-0 · Challenger Series TT

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Rafael Turrini vs Luis Kraus 3-0 · Challenger Series TT

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.