TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Marek Zaskodny vs Frantisek Chaloupka 3-2 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 52 - H2 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111181214113113
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:41 and never touched: 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Chaloupka to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMarek Zaskodny above · Frantisek Chaloupka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 90 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Frantisek Chaloupka at 54.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Marek Zaskodny 5–11 Frantisek Chaloupka Marek Zaskodny has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4154.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chaloupka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Chaloupka
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zaskodny 1646 vs Chaloupka 1700
Chaloupka
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zaskodny 80% vs Chaloupka 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zaskodny 80% vs Chaloupka 50%
Zaskodny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zaskodny -1 · Chaloupka +4
Chaloupka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Chaloupka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaloupka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZaskodny 2.10 / Chaloupka 1.666
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Chaloupka)-5.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13277272
Zaskodny2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 42 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Chaloupka1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 115 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it97% 70 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it77% 96 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZaskodny3wins
AwayChaloupka7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderChaloupka leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZaskodny50%2 of 4
AwayChaloupka83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zaskodny4Chaloupka6n = 10Chaloupka took 6 of 10
S2Zaskodny2Chaloupka8n = 10Chaloupka took 8 of 10
S3Zaskodny2Chaloupka8n = 10Chaloupka took 8 of 10
S4Zaskodny2Chaloupka4n = 6Chaloupka took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricZaskodnyChaloupkaZ − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.638.7−8.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZaskodnyChaloupkaBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 305 vs 309 / 58542.3%52.8%129 / 305 vs 309 / 585Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChaloupkaZaskodny 2.10/Chaloupka 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.8%
Chaloupka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Zaskodny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 17:14M. Zaskodny2695120F. Chaloupka361111143
WOct 7 · 15:45M. Zaskodny41311115113F. Chaloupka4311881152
LSep 20 · 17:14M. Zaskodny184680F. Chaloupka331111113
LSep 20 · 14:45M. Zaskodny32119661F. Chaloupka4181111113
LSep 1 · 14:40M. Zaskodny34117881F. Chaloupka4181111113
WMay 17 · 05:40M. Zaskodny47117611123F. Chaloupka50911119102
LApr 17 · 18:40M. Zaskodny23111381F. Chaloupka4211911113
WApr 6 · 05:40M. Zaskodny4211911113F. Chaloupka34911681
LMar 15 · 16:40M. Zaskodny2261060F. Chaloupka341112113
LJan 6 · 16:45M. Zaskodny213990F. Chaloupka331111113
M. Zaskodny10
LOct 11 · 10:45M. Zaskodny1.8010780J. Skalicky1.911211113WOct 11 · 09:45M. Zaskodny1.61111511113B. Mrowetz2.207131381WOct 8 · 21:08M. Zaskodny1.531111123D. Stusek2.3874100WOct 8 · 19:40M. Zaskodny1.831111113D. Stusek1.838690WOct 8 · 18:40M. Zaskodny1.501111113I. Heuman2.505260WOct 8 · 17:40M. Zaskodny1.281111113P. Marsalek3.505640LOct 7 · 17:14M. Zaskodny2.2595120F. Chaloupka1.571111143WOct 7 · 15:45M. Zaskodny2.00311115113F. Chaloupka1.7311881152WOct 7 · 14:45M. Zaskodny2.00111259113D. Skulina1.73910111172WOct 7 · 13:45M. Zaskodny1.831111123D. Stusek1.8399100
F. Chaloupka10
WOct 11 · 11:15B. Mrowetz2.00811491F. Chaloupka1.7311411113WOct 11 · 10:15F. Chaloupka1.8011118113J. Skalicky1.91481151WOct 11 · 08:44F. Chaloupka1.50711911113M. Macurak2.5011911682WOct 11 · 08:15F. Chaloupka1.671111113M. Macurak2.105880LOct 11 · 06:45D. Sarganek1.53111111113F. Chaloupka2.38135781LOct 11 · 06:15B. Moravec1.53127118113F. Chaloupka2.38101161152LOct 9 · 16:44F. Chaloupka1.6791161172J. Krupnik2.10116118113LOct 9 · 15:45B. Moravec1.571221211113F. Chaloupka2.25141110472WOct 7 · 17:14M. Zaskodny2.2595120F. Chaloupka1.571111143LOct 7 · 15:45M. Zaskodny2.00311115113F. Chaloupka1.7311881152
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