TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Sorochan vs Vasyl Matviichuk 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114118––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:52 and never touched: 82.7% is still 82.7%
Graded at full timeIhor Sorochan to win
82.7%
82.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Sorochan above · Vasyl Matviichuk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Ihor Sorochan at 82.7%
51 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Sorochan 46–7 Vasyl Matviichuk Vasyl Matviichuk has won 7 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:5282.7%Our read87.6%to break even at 1.142
short by 4.9pp87.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.142 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Sorochan
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
46-7 in 53
Sorochan
Correct
gap of 39 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sorochan 1221 vs Matviichuk 1147
Sorochan
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sorochan 0% vs Matviichuk 40%
Matviichuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sorochan 30% vs Matviichuk 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sorochan -5 · Matviichuk +2
Sorochan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 83% · Strong (leans Sorochan) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matviichuk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSorochan 1.142 / Matviichuk 5.00
Signal prob.83% / 17%
Edge (Sorochan)-4.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276394
Sorochan1.14
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 60 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it82% 49 of 60
Matviichuk5.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 41 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back8% 7 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSorochan10wins
AwayMatviichuk0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSorochan leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSorochan100%9 of 9
AwayMatviichukn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sorochan9Matviichuk1n = 10Sorochan took 9 of 10
S2Sorochan10Matviichuk0n = 10Sorochan took 10 of 10
S3Sorochan7Matviichuk3n = 10Sorochan took 7 of 10
S4Sorochan3Matviichuk1n = 4Sorochan took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSorochanMatviichukS − MBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.124.4+13.7per matchSweeps60+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSorochanMatviichukBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 419 vs 284 / 59654.2%47.7%227 / 419 vs 284 / 596Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SorochanSorochan 1.14/Matviichuk 5.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
82.7%
Sorochan · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sorochan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 09:00I. Sorochan331111113V. Matviichuk186480
WSep 5 · 16:00I. Sorochan4111118113V. Matviichuk33491191
WAug 19 · 06:30I. Sorochan331111113V. Matviichuk165650
WAug 12 · 05:30I. Sorochan331111113V. Matviichuk206860
WJun 1 · 06:30I. Sorochan4291111113V. Matviichuk26111771
WApr 27 · 07:00I. Sorochan341112113V. Matviichuk1911080
WFeb 8 · 08:30I. Sorochan531111911113V. Matviichuk4357111372
WNov 28 · 09:00I. Sorochan4611119153V. Matviichuk312511131
WNov 24 · 08:30I. Sorochan331111113V. Matviichuk216870
WNov 17 · 11:26I. Sorochan331111113V. Matviichuk177730
I. Sorochan10
LOct 11 · 08:00S. Honcharenko1.531111153I. Sorochan2.3884130LOct 11 · 07:00O. Levytskyi2.50661111113I. Sorochan1.5011117792LOct 11 · 05:30A. Lysyi3.2511811113I. Sorochan1.33811541LOct 10 · 16:59A. Lysyi3.7511311113I. Sorochan1.25611491LOct 10 · 15:30Y. Zvolynskyi1.57171111203I. Sorochan2.251963181WOct 10 · 14:30I. Sorochan1.5731111113O. Levytskyi2.25116691LOct 10 · 13:30A. Danylov4.3341171193I. Sorochan1.2011811572WOct 10 · 12:30I. Sorochan1.301111113A. Lysyi3.409870WOct 4 · 17:09O. Levytskyi1.91117101142I. Sorochan1.80711128113LOct 4 · 16:00I. Sorochan1.739980O. Levytskyi2.001111113
V. Matviichuk10
LOct 11 · 10:03V. Matviichuk1.801111111182A. Lysyi1.91136913113WOct 11 · 07:30A. Lysyi1.671111771V. Matviichuk2.1013811113WOct 11 · 06:00O. Levytskyi1.4411961172V. Matviichuk2.63511115113LOct 11 · 05:00S. Honcharenko1.67117128113V. Matviichuk2.10311101172LOct 7 · 10:13Y. Urezchenko2.5014711113V. Matviichuk1.501211791LOct 7 · 09:30V. Matviichuk1.671591791V. Khyzhnyak2.10171115113WOct 7 · 08:30V. Matviichuk2.251111123S. Honcharenko1.5775100LOct 7 · 07:00V. Matviichuk3.251111171V. Kurliuk1.3313114113LOct 7 · 06:00V. Matviichuk1.401111261Y. Urezchenko2.7513511113WOct 6 · 09:59E. Bakin1.678550V. Matviichuk2.101111113
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