Jakub Chmielowski vs Dawid Jadam 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesHSC · Czestochowa

Played Oct 12Finished

Jakub Chmielowski

Home

1.83

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1154111151012118

Dawid Jadam

Away

1.83

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jakub Chmielowski to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.

How it is goingJakub Chmielowski above · Dawid Jadam below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 4-11

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 10-12

Set 5 · 11-8

Point 88 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Jakub Chmielowski at 54.0%

88 points played in total.

H2H Jakub Chmielowski 11–11 Dawid Jadam Dead even across their 22 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Chmielowski

Chmielowski 1.83/Jadam 1.83

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Chmielowski · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Chmielowski won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 00:28

54.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833

short by 0.6pp

54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.83 (50%)

Jadam

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

11-11 in 22

—

Too close

gap of 0, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Chmielowski 1713 vs Jadam 1699

Chmielowski

Correct

both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Chmielowski 60% vs Jadam 40%

Chmielowski

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Chmielowski 70% vs Jadam 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Chmielowski +2 · Jadam +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chmielowski) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Jadam: form 40%, the price implies 55%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsChmielowski 1.833 / Jadam 1.833

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Chmielowski)-0.6pp

Same-day rematch · 9h before this match

Jadam beat Chmielowski 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeChmielowski5wins

AwayJadam5wins

8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeChmielowski50%4 of 8

AwayJadamn = 2, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Chmielowski8Jadam2n = 10Chmielowski took 8 of 10

S2Chmielowski2Jadam8n = 10Jadam took 8 of 10

S3Chmielowski3Jadam7n = 10Jadam took 7 of 10

S4Chmielowski9Jadam0n = 9Chmielowski took 9 of 9

S5Chmielowski3Jadam5n = 8Jadam took 5 of 8

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away550%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricChmielowskiJadamC − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match47.444.3+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricChmielowskiJadamBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 692 vs 172 / 34748.4%49.6%335 / 692 vs 172 / 347Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.637.7per match

TT Elite Series · #13275151

Chmielowski1.83

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Jadam1.83

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

Jakub Chmielowski vs Dawid Jadam 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jakub Chmielowski vs Dawid Jadam 3-2 · TT Elite Series

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.