TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Mishchenko vs Yevhenii Kryvorotko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1719611611––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:49 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Kryvorotko to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Mishchenko above · Yevhenii Kryvorotko below
Set 1 · 17-19
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 70 set 3, 6-11 · our read held Yevhenii Kryvorotko at 79.4%
70 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Mishchenko 27–76 Yevhenii Kryvorotko Oleksandr Mishchenko has won 27 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:4979.4%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 0.6pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kryvorotko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-76 in 103
Kryvorotko
Correct
gap of 49 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mishchenko 1574 vs Kryvorotko 1784
Kryvorotko
Correct
both rated, 210 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mishchenko 20% vs Kryvorotko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mishchenko 20% vs Kryvorotko 60%
Kryvorotko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mishchenko -1 · Kryvorotko -4
Kryvorotko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Kryvorotko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kryvorotko form (20%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMishchenko 3.75 / Kryvorotko 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Kryvorotko)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13271112
Mishchenko3.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 86 of 246
Down 0–1, comes back14% 19 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 75
Kryvorotko1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 120 of 200
Up 2–0, closes it94% 47 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it79% 76 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMishchenko3wins
AwayKryvorotko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKryvorotko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMishchenko28.6%2 of 7
AwayKryvorotko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mishchenko7Kryvorotko3n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S2Mishchenko6Kryvorotko4n = 10Mishchenko took 6 of 10
S3Mishchenko3Kryvorotko7n = 10Kryvorotko took 7 of 10
S4Mishchenko2Kryvorotko6n = 8Kryvorotko took 6 of 8
S5Mishchenko0Kryvorotko3n = 3Kryvorotko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMishchenkoKryvorotkoM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.339.2−3.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMishchenkoKryvorotkoBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 1048 vs 316 / 50046%63.2%482 / 1048 vs 316 / 500Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KryvorotkoMishchenko 3.75/Kryvorotko 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Kryvorotko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kryvorotko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 20:25O. Mishchenko331111113Y. Kryvorotko249690
WOct 3 · 22:25O. Mishchenko3411111113Y. Kryvorotko32871161
LSep 27 · 03:25O. Mishchenko43111171042Y. Kryvorotko46481112113
LSep 25 · 19:55O. Mishchenko48111191252Y. Kryvorotko49581114113
LSep 19 · 23:55O. Mishchenko49119111172Y. Kryvorotko49711713113
LSep 18 · 20:25O. Mishchenko23116331Y. Kryvorotko4291111113
LSep 14 · 03:25O. Mishchenko28118271Y. Kryvorotko4291111113
WSep 12 · 22:25O. Mishchenko4691111153Y. Kryvorotko361157131
LSep 4 · 15:25O. Mishchenko175840Y. Kryvorotko331111113
LAug 30 · 01:25O. Mishchenko32711771Y. Kryvorotko3911611113
O. Mishchenko10
LOct 10 · 21:55O. Mishchenko1.80118741V. Krokhmal1.9151111113WOct 9 · 20:25Y. Kryvorotko1.259690O. Mishchenko3.751111113LOct 9 · 18:55O. Mishchenko1.736680O. Kovalchuk2.001111113LOct 9 · 16:55A. Chepurnyi1.3611119113O. Mishchenko3.00681131LOct 9 · 14:55V. Krokhmal2.004111213113O. Mishchenko1.73117101552LOct 9 · 13:55O. Dukhovenko1.5081111113O. Mishchenko2.50116581WOct 7 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk2.1010780O. Mishchenko1.671211113LOct 7 · 18:55O. Mishchenko1.6771111462V. Krokhmal2.10116711113LOct 7 · 16:55A. Chepurnyi1.281111113O. Mishchenko3.507990LOct 7 · 14:55V. Kovalenko1.8311912113O. Mishchenko1.837111031
Y. Kryvorotko10
LOct 10 · 22:25Y. Kryvorotko1.1371050O. Kovalchuk5.501112113LOct 9 · 20:25Y. Kryvorotko1.259690O. Mishchenko3.751111113LOct 9 · 18:25O. Dukhovenko2.0011611113Y. Kryvorotko1.73811961LOct 9 · 16:25V. Krokhmal2.6311157123Y. Kryvorotko1.4471311101WOct 9 · 15:25Y. Kryvorotko1.131611113O. Kovalchuk5.5014690WOct 9 · 14:25A. Chepurnyi2.3811118992Y. Kryvorotko1.53891111113WOct 4 · 02:54A. Chepurnyi2.5010115141Y. Kryvorotko1.5012811163WOct 4 · 01:55Y. Kryvorotko1.361111113P. Plakushchyi3.008750WOct 4 · 00:55Y. Kryvorotko1.571111123A. Chepurnyi2.2553100WOct 3 · 23:25Y. Kryvorotko1.131111143O. Kovalchuk5.5097120
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