TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleg Pavlyuk vs Yaroslav Kravets 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113113117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:06 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeOleg Pavlyuk to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Oleg Pavlyuk @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingOleg Pavlyuk above · Yaroslav Kravets below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 46 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Oleg Pavlyuk at 63.3%
46 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Pavlyuk 2–0 Yaroslav Kravets Yaroslav Kravets has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 09:06Sent to Pro: Oleg Pavlyuk @ 1.50 · Won
63.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pavlyuk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Pavlyuk 1640 vs Kravets 1679
Kravets
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlyuk 40% vs Kravets 60%
Kravets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlyuk 60% vs Kravets 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlyuk -3 · Kravets +2
Pavlyuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Pavlyuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kravets form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlyuk 1.50 / Kravets 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Pavlyuk)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270999
Pavlyuk1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 7 of 12
Kravets2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePavlyuk2wins
AwayKravets0wins
Pavlyuk leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPavlyukKravetsP − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.031.5+7.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlyukKravetsBasisWin rate · lifetime24 / 61 vs 242 / 48839.3%49.6%24 / 61 vs 242 / 488Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PavlyukPavlyuk 1.50/Kravets 2.50
Hit
What we said
63.3%
Pavlyuk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Oleg Pavlyuk @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–0
Pavlyuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 9 · 14:35O. Pavlyuk4491113113Y. Kravets391191181
WMay 23 · 08:05O. Pavlyuk341111123Y. Kravets2468100
O. Pavlyuk10
LOct 10 · 09:05O. Pavlyuk1.441111741A. Shypilov2.6371311113LOct 10 · 07:35O. Pavlyuk1.538911101R. Lazebnyi2.3811119123LOct 10 · 06:05O. Pavlyuk1.679118101O. Napirko2.1011711123WOct 10 · 04:35O. Pavlyuk1.53111111113N. Kovalchuk2.38651371WOct 9 · 18:05I. Kozachuk1.571261191O. Pavlyuk2.2514117113WOct 9 · 17:05O. Pavlyuk1.7311118103N. Kovalchuk2.00691181WOct 9 · 16:05O. Pavlyuk1.911118710113R. Lazebnyi1.80516111232WOct 9 · 14:35O. Pavlyuk1.7391113113Y. Kravets2.001191181LOct 9 · 12:35O. Pavlyuk2.25451611102D. Shcherbak1.571111147123WOct 9 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.4068100O. Pavlyuk2.751111123
Y. Kravets10
WOct 10 · 09:35Y. Kravets2.001111113R. Lazebnyi1.734860WOct 10 · 08:35Y. Kravets2.631111113N. Kovalchuk1.445960LOct 10 · 07:05Y. Kravets1.4411631172A. Shypilov2.63811118113WOct 10 · 05:05Y. Kravets1.441111113O. Napirko2.637470LOct 9 · 18:35Y. Kravets1.802870R. Lazebnyi1.911111113LOct 9 · 16:35I. Kozachuk1.801112917113Y. Kravets1.91714111582LOct 9 · 15:35Y. Kravets2.506970D. Shcherbak1.501111113LOct 9 · 14:35O. Pavlyuk1.7391113113Y. Kravets2.001191181WOct 9 · 13:05Y. Kravets3.001111113N. Kovalchuk1.369680WOct 3 · 10:35Y. Kravets2.201111113I. Kozachuk1.616760
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