TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Matus Zelinka vs Lukas Rulc 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161012116115––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:43 and never touched: 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Matus Zelinka at 56.9%
72 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 6–6 Lukas Rulc Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:4356.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Zelinka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zelinka 1815 vs Rulc 1683
Zelinka
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zelinka 80% vs Rulc 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zelinka 80% vs Rulc 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zelinka +2 · Rulc +3
Rulc
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Zelinka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.727 / Rulc 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Zelinka)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270632
Zelinka1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 73 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it81% 50 of 62
Rulc2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 56 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka5wins
AwayRulc5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka100%4 of 4
AwayRulc83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka4Rulc6n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S2Zelinka6Rulc4n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S3Zelinka6Rulc4n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S4Zelinka4Rulc5n = 9Rulc took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaRulcZ − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.239.1+2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime228 / 418 vs 352 / 70654.6%49.9%228 / 418 vs 352 / 706Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaZelinka 1.73/Rulc 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.9%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 07:45M. Zelinka43111011113L. Rulc29612651
LAug 25 · 06:45M. Zelinka26811431L. Rulc4011711113
WAug 11 · 05:15M. Zelinka331111113L. Rulc136250
WAug 9 · 05:45M. Zelinka43111011113L. Rulc31312791
WAug 8 · 12:54M. Zelinka5611111310113L. Rulc51913111262
LAug 8 · 11:45M. Zelinka569111013132L. Rulc511121211153
LAug 7 · 07:30M. Zelinka4010111181L. Rulc4512913113
LJun 12 · 18:00M. Zelinka28811361L. Rulc4211911113
WMay 14 · 08:49M. Zelinka48101112153L. Rulc4412910131
LMay 14 · 07:45M. Zelinka39991471L. Rulc45111112113
M. Zelinka10
WOct 10 · 06:15R. Pisa2.20711671M. Zelinka1.6111511113WOct 10 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.911111991M. Zelinka1.8061311113LOct 7 · 16:49M. Zelinka1.50111112682S. Rejent2.50491411113WOct 7 · 15:45M. Zelinka1.8051111113L. Dobias1.91116581WOct 7 · 14:15S. Rejent2.501041991M. Zelinka1.50121117113WOct 7 · 13:45L. Heinzl1.911112351M. Zelinka1.8091411113WOct 6 · 20:48D. Gasparovic1.8311101261M. Zelinka1.8391214113WOct 6 · 19:15V. Burylov1.83116111072M. Zelinka1.83411912113LOct 6 · 18:45M. Zelinka2.0041112882D. Gasparovic1.731161011113WOct 6 · 17:45M. Zelinka1.9191111113J. Chalupa1.80117781
L. Rulc10
WOct 10 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.5311871192L. Rulc2.38911116113WOct 10 · 05:15R. Pisa1.834540L. Rulc1.831111113WOct 9 · 16:44M. Vyskocil2.1010780L. Rulc1.671211113LOct 9 · 15:45L. Rulc1.67812291M. Vyskocil2.10111011113WOct 9 · 14:15O. Mezera2.7511441192L. Rulc1.40611119113LOct 9 · 13:45A. Radkovsky1.83129116113L. Rulc1.83101191172WOct 9 · 08:49L. Rulc2.1011911113J. Rochowanski1.67711831WOct 9 · 07:45L. Rulc1.83111179113M. Makara1.8338111182LOct 9 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.73511511113L. Rulc2.0011711892WOct 9 · 05:45J. Senk2.108850L. Rulc1.671111113
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