TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marek Tkocz vs Rafal Komandzik 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1164117111012––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:19 and never touched: 86.5% is still 86.5%
Graded at full timeMarek Tkocz to win
86.5%
86.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
1164117111012––
H2H Marek Tkocz 2–0 Rafal Komandzik Rafal Komandzik has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Tkocz beat Komandzik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:1986.5%Our read84.7%to break even at 1.18
clears by 1.8pp84.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.18 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.18 (78%)
Tkocz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkocz 1479 vs Komandzik 1081
Tkocz
Wrong
both rated, 398 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkocz 80% vs Komandzik 20%
Tkocz
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkocz 70% vs Komandzik 20%
Tkocz
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkocz +3 · Komandzik -2
Tkocz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 87% · Strong (leans Tkocz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkocz 1.18 / Komandzik 4.20
Signal prob.87% / 14%
Edge (Tkocz)+1.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13267192
Tkocz1.18
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 287 of 422
Up 2–0, closes it95% 162 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it86% 241 of 279
Komandzik4.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTkocz2wins
AwayKomandzik0wins
Tkocz leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTkoczKomandzikT − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.519.0+18.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkoczKomandzikBasisWin rate · lifetime775 / 1171 vs 5 / 2966.2%17.2%775 / 1171 vs 5 / 29Avg sets wonper match2.41.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.931.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkoczTkocz 1.18/Komandzik 4.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
86.5%
Tkocz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Komandzik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 8 · 20:20M. Tkocz331111113R. Komandzik167720
WSep 10 · 23:35M. Tkocz4211911113R. Komandzik22711311
M. Tkocz10
WOct 9 · 00:45G. Jurowicz2.456480M. Tkocz1.451111113WOct 9 · 00:00O. Vincenec3.501071171M. Tkocz1.2512118113WOct 8 · 23:10M. Tkocz1.4611812113P. Kurek2.355111071LOct 8 · 22:00M. Tkocz1.677980K. Adamus1.951111113WOct 8 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.141111113R. Komandzik5.007720WOct 8 · 18:45M. Koczyba1.78118981M. Tkocz1.9191111113WOct 8 · 18:00K. Adamus1.91871171M. Tkocz1.8011115113WOct 8 · 17:10M. Tkocz1.461111113W. Pytlas2.554130LOct 8 · 16:00M. Tkocz1.8491191152G. Jurowicz1.87118115113LOct 7 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.809360G. Jurowicz1.911111113
R. Komandzik10
LOct 9 · 01:35P. Kurek1.32121011113R. Komandzik3.001012231LOct 8 · 23:35G. Jurowicz1.36111011113R. Komandzik2.66912661WOct 8 · 22:50K. Adamus1.26121081152R. Komandzik3.501012117113LOct 8 · 21:10O. Vincenec1.52111110113R. Komandzik2.30781281LOct 8 · 20:20M. Tkocz1.141111113R. Komandzik5.007720LOct 8 · 19:35W. Pytlas1.271111113R. Komandzik3.259360LOct 8 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.2211811113R. Komandzik4.00511451WOct 8 · 16:50G. Jurowicz1.47118881R. Komandzik2.4061111113LOct 8 · 15:10K. Adamus1.601113173R. Komandzik2.10711150LSep 11 · 08:20M. Adamus1.301011911133R. Komandzik3.25124117112
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.