TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ondrej Paril vs Michal Vavrecka 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412117811114––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:59 and never touched: 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Paril to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Michal Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 78 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Ondrej Paril at 64.1%
78 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 33–23 Michal Vavrecka Michal Vavrecka has won 23 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5964.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 2.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Paril
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-23 in 56
Paril
Correct
gap of 10 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1870 vs Vavrecka 1760
Paril
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 60% vs Vavrecka 40%
Paril
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 50% vs Vavrecka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +1 · Vavrecka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Paril) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.50 / Vavrecka 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Paril)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259069
Paril1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 163 of 283
Up 2–0, closes it93% 77 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it77% 121 of 157
Vavrecka2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 149 of 328
Down 0–1, comes back27% 50 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil7wins
AwayVavrecka3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderParil leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil83.3%5 of 6
AwayVavrecka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril6Vavrecka4n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S2Paril6Vavrecka4n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S3Paril4Vavrecka6n = 10Vavrecka took 6 of 10
S4Paril6Vavrecka3n = 9Paril took 6 of 9
S5Paril2Vavrecka1n = 3Paril took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilVavreckaP − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.237.5+3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime516 / 993 vs 939 / 187052%50.2%516 / 993 vs 939 / 1870Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.50/Vavrecka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.1%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Paril won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 08:00O. Paril4414118113M. Vavrecka341271141
WSep 9 · 06:00O. Paril45111112113M. Vavrecka33731491
LSep 7 · 18:00O. Paril33116971M. Vavrecka3851111113
WAug 30 · 07:00O. Paril4111811113M. Vavrecka26211671
WAug 29 · 12:58O. Paril4281111123M. Vavrecka351186101
LAug 29 · 12:30O. Paril208480M. Vavrecka331111113
WAug 28 · 13:30O. Paril45511711113M. Vavrecka4911911992
WAug 28 · 11:30O. Paril50119117123M. Vavrecka48711911102
LAug 26 · 07:00O. Paril481011121052M. Vavrecka541291012113
WAug 23 · 17:29O. Paril44111111113M. Vavrecka25311381
O. Paril10
WOct 8 · 07:30R. Polasek1.919330O. Paril1.801111113LOct 8 · 06:00O. Paril1.804680P. Wawrosz1.911111113WOct 7 · 21:28R. Niezgoda1.3071170O. Paril3.401113113LOct 7 · 20:30O. Paril1.8091111452R. Revay1.91115911113WOct 7 · 19:00O. Paril2.75811118113D. Opanasiuk1.4011861192LOct 7 · 18:00R. Niezgoda1.30111147113O. Paril3.4088111172WOct 6 · 17:03O. Paril2.381091111113J. Szotkowski1.5312114592LOct 6 · 16:00O. Paril1.9181181122T. Zika1.80117117113WOct 6 · 15:30J. Szotkowski1.61131181252O. Paril2.201591110113LOct 6 · 14:00O. Paril2.204670M. Biolek1.611111113
M. Vavrecka10
LOct 8 · 09:00R. Polasek1.671111113M. Vavrecka2.104590LOct 8 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.839101111113M. Vavrecka1.8311127752LOct 8 · 06:30M. Vavrecka2.10911871R. Polasek1.6711611113WOct 7 · 08:58M. Vavrecka1.9161111113T. Dousek1.80113891WOct 7 · 08:30M. Vavrecka2.10741111113R. Polasek1.6711118852LOct 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.83710111122T. Dousek1.83111286113LOct 7 · 06:00T. Zika1.6111123113M. Vavrecka2.206101181LOct 5 · 21:30T. Zika1.61111189113M. Vavrecka2.2098111152WOct 5 · 20:00M. Vavrecka2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67115761LOct 5 · 19:30T. Zika1.801111113M. Vavrecka1.919880
Upcoming Matches
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