TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Klement vs Mark Robin Wagner 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61111361114121113
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:47 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMark Robin Wagner to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Klement above · Mark Robin Wagner below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 98 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Mark Robin Wagner at 60.5%
98 points played in total.
H2H Milan Klement 2–2 Mark Robin Wagner Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4760.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Klement 1630 vs Wagner 1737
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Klement 60% vs Wagner 40%
Klement
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Klement 60% vs Wagner 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Klement +1 · Wagner -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Wagner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKlement 2.20 / Wagner 1.615
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Wagner)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13258488
Klement2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 57 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back24% 16 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Wagner1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite57% won 63 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it80% 45 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKlement2wins
AwayWagner2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKlement66.7%2 of 3
AwayWagnern = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Klement3Wagner1n = 4Klement took 3 of 4
S2Klement2Wagner2n = 4split evenly
S3Klement0Wagner4n = 4Wagner took 4 of 4
S4Klement1Wagner2n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricKlementWagnerK − WBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.237.5+2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKlementWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 877 vs 117 / 21850.9%53.7%446 / 877 vs 117 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerKlement 2.20/Wagner 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 6 · 06:30M. Klement50111189113M. Wagner4375111192
LSep 3 · 22:00M. Klement391112971M. Wagner4151411113
LAug 23 · 16:00M. Klement2881190M. Wagner351113113
WAug 21 · 16:30M. Klement44121110113M. Wagner311041251
M. Klement10
WOct 8 · 15:30A. Brazda2.634440M. Klement1.441111113LOct 8 · 14:00M. Klement1.8064111192P. Saleny1.91111199113LOct 7 · 13:30M. Klement1.83911111162M. Regner1.83113136113WOct 7 · 12:30M. Klement1.40941111113M. Volf2.7511118872WOct 7 · 11:00M. Klement1.734111110113V. Vejvoda2.0011791242WOct 7 · 10:00M. Regner1.8327111132M. Klement1.83111186113WOct 5 · 20:58M. Klement1.501111113A. Brazda2.504430WOct 5 · 20:30M. Klement1.48111112113A. Brazda2.45961451LOct 5 · 19:00M. Klement1.40111299102L. Tonar2.756101111123LOct 5 · 18:00M. Vondrak2.0011116113M. Klement1.73691181
M. Wagner10
LOct 8 · 15:00P. Saleny2.381051111113M. Wagner1.5312116872LOct 8 · 14:30M. Wagner1.83116211102A. Brazda1.83711118123WOct 7 · 03:30M. Wagner2.0011712113O. Svacha1.739111071LOct 7 · 02:00M. Wagner2.1391111762O. Svacha1.56118311113WOct 7 · 01:00M. Wagner1.851181112113T. Franek1.7531161472WOct 7 · 00:00M. Hampl1.833840M. Wagner1.831111113WOct 6 · 22:30M. Skakal1.8051080M. Wagner1.911112113WOct 6 · 21:30M. Wagner1.6011117113R. Rose2.20961171WOct 6 · 20:30R. Rose1.835780M. Wagner1.831111113WOct 6 · 19:30M. Wagner2.38116812113P. Bradach1.53511111042
Upcoming Matches
M. Klement
Nothing scheduled
M. Wagner
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