TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Sebastian Juzek vs Kamil Smolka 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118711117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:08 and never touched: 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeKamil Smolka to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
117118711117––
H2H Sebastian Juzek 34–46 Kamil Smolka Sebastian Juzek has won 34 of their 80 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Smolka beat Juzek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:0856.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.57
short by 7.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.57 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Smolka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
34-46 in 80
Smolka
Wrong
gap of 12 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Juzek 1288 vs Smolka 1371
Smolka
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juzek 40% vs Smolka 60%
Smolka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juzek 40% vs Smolka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Juzek -2 · Smolka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Smolka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuzek 2.20 / Smolka 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Smolka)-7.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13255137
Juzek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog35% won 96 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back19% 31 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 100
Smolka1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 50 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it64% 36 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJuzek4wins
AwaySmolka6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmolka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJuzek40%2 of 5
AwaySmolka60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Juzek5Smolka5n = 10split evenly
S2Juzek4Smolka6n = 10Smolka took 6 of 10
S3Juzek3Smolka7n = 10Smolka took 7 of 10
S4Juzek5Smolka4n = 9Juzek took 5 of 9
S5Juzek2Smolka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJuzekSmolkaJ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.843.0−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuzekSmolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime314 / 755 vs 231 / 44841.6%51.6%314 / 755 vs 231 / 448Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmolkaJuzek 2.20/Smolka 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Smolka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Juzek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 06:45S. Juzek268990K. Smolka331111113
LAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek32511881K. Smolka4011711113
LAug 26 · 06:45S. Juzek43115101162K. Smolka49711128113
WAug 19 · 12:45S. Juzek4511114193K. Smolka395611171
LAug 19 · 10:20S. Juzek41113125102K. Smolka528111011123
LAug 12 · 16:20S. Juzek30711481K. Smolka3811511113
WAug 12 · 06:45S. Juzek50481115123K. Smolka521111713102
WAug 5 · 14:20S. Juzek50881111123K. Smolka46111168102
WAug 5 · 06:20S. Juzek4411118143K. Smolka386911121
LJul 29 · 14:20S. Juzek27126271K. Smolka43101111113
S. Juzek10
LOct 6 · 15:05S. Juzek1.85410121242B. Madej1.8511121010113LOct 6 · 13:55S. Juzek3.804990K. Hetnar1.241111113WOct 6 · 12:45M. Rus2.704670S. Juzek1.411111113LOct 6 · 11:55S. Juzek2.15941151M. Jozefiak1.6011118113WOct 6 · 10:20S. Juzek1.7591114113M. Rus1.971191261LOct 6 · 09:05S. Juzek1.7389140B. Madej1.981111163WOct 6 · 07:55S. Juzek3.4511811113K. Hetnar1.25811671LOct 6 · 06:45K. Smolka1.531111113S. Juzek2.358990WOct 6 · 05:55S. Juzek—851211113M. Jozefiak—111110682LSep 29 · 16:20S. Juzek2.908830O. Jadach1.351111113
K. Smolka10
LOct 6 · 15:30M. Rus1.741181111113K. Smolka2.0081191382WOct 6 · 14:45K. Smolka1.67118113113M. Jozefiak2.1051171152WOct 6 · 13:10K. Smolka2.25111110123K. Hetnar1.553412101LOct 6 · 12:20B. Madej2.7091211143K. Smolka1.4111107121WOct 6 · 09:30K. Smolka1.3011911113M. Rus3.20611951LOct 6 · 08:20K. Smolka1.42137831B. Madej2.60111111113WOct 6 · 06:45K. Smolka1.531111113S. Juzek2.358990LOct 6 · 05:30K. Smolka2.10813771K. Hetnar1.65111111113WAug 26 · 16:30S. Juzek2.25511881K. Smolka1.5711711113LAug 26 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.431161111113K. Smolka2.5541113662
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