TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matyas Navedla vs Tadeas Zika 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111513115112––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched: 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeTadeas Zika to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Tadeas Zika @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Tadeas Zika below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 73 set 4, 11-2 · our read held Tadeas Zika at 60.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 33–39 Tadeas Zika Matyas Navedla has won 33 of their 72 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:2760.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zika
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-39 in 72
Zika
Wrong
gap of 6 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1744 vs Zika 1870
Zika
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 60% vs Zika 80%
Zika
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 50% vs Zika 70%
Zika
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla +1 · Zika +4
Zika
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Zika) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zika form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.20 / Zika 1.615
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Zika)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13253790
Navedla2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 134 of 321
Down 0–1, comes back26% 43 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 79
Zika1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 88 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it100% 41 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it74% 63 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla4wins
AwayZika6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZika leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla50%2 of 4
AwayZika66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla4Zika6n = 10Zika took 6 of 10
S2Navedla6Zika4n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S3Navedla3Zika7n = 10Zika took 7 of 10
S4Navedla2Zika4n = 6Zika took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaZikaN − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.736.2−2.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaZikaBasisWin rate · lifetime387 / 821 vs 815 / 175647.1%46.4%387 / 821 vs 815 / 1756Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZikaNavedla 2.20/Zika 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.5%
Zika · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Tadeas Zika @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
3–1
Navedla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 07:30M. Navedla227780T. Zika331111113
LSep 23 · 12:30M. Navedla228950T. Zika331111113
LSep 22 · 08:30M. Navedla321110561T. Zika4281211113
LAug 12 · 09:30M. Navedla28311771T. Zika3811511113
LAug 12 · 08:30M. Navedla3510114101T. Zika4012511123
WAug 11 · 11:30M. Navedla351311113T. Zika2311930
WAug 5 · 07:30M. Navedla4271113113T. Zika381181181
LJul 29 · 06:00M. Navedla31118661T. Zika4291111113
WJul 28 · 14:30M. Navedla541211911113T. Zika4714811772
WJul 20 · 20:58M. Navedla361112133T. Zika26510110
M. Navedla10
LOct 7 · 13:09M. Navedla1.80113861P. Wawrosz1.9071111113WOct 7 · 11:00M. Navedla2.00511118113P. Wawrosz1.7311471192LOct 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.5771111113M. Navedla2.25118761LOct 6 · 17:30M. Grundel1.67111174113M. Navedla2.1077111182WOct 6 · 16:00M. Navedla2.001111113D. Ondryas1.739890WOct 6 · 15:30R. Urbaniec1.91814461M. Navedla1.80111211113LOct 6 · 14:00M. Navedla1.917960M. Grundel1.801111113LOct 4 · 21:30L. Prikasky2.2511811123M. Navedla1.588119101LOct 4 · 20:30M. Navedla1.50119111092L. Prikasky2.50811512113WOct 4 · 19:00M. Navedla2.25811126113M. Vavrecka1.57115101172
T. Zika10
WOct 7 · 13:30T. Dousek1.851061121T. Zika1.8512117113WOct 7 · 11:30T. Zika2.2511116113T. Dousek1.57871171WOct 7 · 10:30P. Wawrosz1.83781171T. Zika1.8311117113WOct 7 · 09:30T. Zika1.731111153R. Polasek2.0078130WOct 7 · 08:00T. Zika2.2081111113T. Dousek1.61116781LOct 7 · 07:30R. Polasek1.91411711113T. Zika1.8011811782WOct 7 · 06:00T. Zika1.6111123113M. Vavrecka2.206101181LOct 6 · 17:30M. Biolek1.5011116113T. Zika2.50551131WOct 6 · 16:00O. Paril1.9181181122T. Zika1.80117117113LOct 6 · 15:00M. Biolek1.44111111113T. Zika2.63136911
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