TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Maksym Mrykh vs Ivan Nitchenko 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
15171618811––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Mrykh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Mrykh above · Ivan Nitchenko below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 16-18
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 85 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Maksym Mrykh at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Mrykh 7–4 Ivan Nitchenko Ivan Nitchenko has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4854.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mrykh
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Mrykh
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrykh 1672 vs Nitchenko 1678
Nitchenko
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrykh 60% vs Nitchenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrykh 60% vs Nitchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrykh -1 · Nitchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mrykh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrykh 1.727 / Nitchenko 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mrykh)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250991
Mrykh1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 57 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it80% 41 of 51
Nitchenko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 43 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMrykh6wins
AwayNitchenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMrykh leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrykh100%5 of 5
AwayNitchenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrykh5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Mrykh5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Mrykh5Nitchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Mrykh5Nitchenko2n = 7Mrykh took 5 of 7
S5Mrykh2Nitchenko1n = 3Mrykh took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMrykhNitchenkoM − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.2+3.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrykhNitchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 470 vs 193 / 40046.6%48.3%219 / 470 vs 193 / 400Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MrykhMrykh 1.73/Nitchenko 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mrykh · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 08:20M. Mrykh341111123I. Nitchenko2477100
LSep 29 · 06:20M. Mrykh3831011141I. Nitchenko4311124163
WSep 25 · 10:50M. Mrykh43111110113I. Nitchenko32491271
LSep 22 · 07:20M. Mrykh387912101I. Nitchenko44111110123
LSep 11 · 06:20M. Mrykh4689111172I. Nitchenko45111148113
LSep 10 · 18:00M. Mrykh258890I. Nitchenko331111113
WSep 8 · 12:20M. Mrykh3911116113I. Nitchenko37981191
WAug 21 · 06:20M. Mrykh59119711213I. Nitchenko53711115192
WJul 28 · 06:50M. Mrykh49711611143I. Nitchenko44117113122
WApr 20 · 11:40M. Mrykh331111113I. Nitchenko173590
M. Mrykh10
LOct 6 · 10:20M. Mrykh2.101348111A. Derevianko1.67111111133WOct 6 · 08:50M. Mrykh1.611111113O. Zhyrnov2.208880WOct 6 · 07:20M. Mrykh1.8021111113E. Hrytsenko1.91117791WOct 6 · 05:50M. Mrykh2.0071111113O. Strutinskiy1.73119581LOct 3 · 11:50A. Nazarov1.8311119113M. Mrykh1.83791151LOct 3 · 10:50M. Mrykh2.0071271862V. Savoliuk1.7311101116113WOct 3 · 09:50M. Mrykh1.91914117113O. Strutinskiy1.80111281192WOct 3 · 08:20M. Mrykh2.001110115113A. Derevianko1.7381271182LOct 3 · 06:20M. Mrykh1.5098110O. Zhyrnov2.501111133WOct 2 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.80811971M. Mrykh1.9111911113
I. Nitchenko10
WOct 6 · 10:50I. Nitchenko1.611151111113O. Zhyrnov2.2061113742LOct 6 · 09:50I. Nitchenko1.9110113111O. Strutinskiy1.8012911133WOct 6 · 08:20I. Nitchenko1.5381112113A. Derevianko2.381171091LOct 6 · 06:20I. Nitchenko2.0011671192E. Hrytsenko1.73811118113WOct 2 · 12:20I. Nitchenko1.831351311113O. Strutinskiy1.831111111332WOct 2 · 10:20E. Hrytsenko1.739101291I. Nitchenko2.00111210113LOct 2 · 09:20I. Nitchenko2.501197101Y. Riadynskyi1.5041111123LOct 2 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.801111123I. Nitchenko1.9177100WOct 2 · 06:50I. Nitchenko1.611111143A. Derevianko2.2078120LSep 29 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.5013811113I. Nitchenko2.501111281
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