TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Denys Kovtanyuk vs Szymon Toborek 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117911116911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:11 and never touched: 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeDenys Kovtanyuk to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Denys Kovtanyuk @ 1.77 · Lost
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
811117911116911
H2H Denys Kovtanyuk 4–1 Szymon Toborek Szymon Toborek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:1154.2%Our read56.5%to break even at 1.77
short by 2.3pp56.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.77 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.77 (52%)
Kovtanyuk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kovtanyuk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovtanyuk 1329 vs Toborek 1308
Kovtanyuk
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovtanyuk 0% vs Toborek 40%
Toborek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovtanyuk 20% vs Toborek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovtanyuk -5 · Toborek +1
Kovtanyuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kovtanyuk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Toborek form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovtanyuk 1.77 / Toborek 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovtanyuk)-2.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13250876
Kovtanyuk1.77
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Toborek1.95
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 11 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKovtanyuk4wins
AwayToborek1wins
Kovtanyuk leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovtanyuk100%4 of 4
AwayToborekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovtanyuk4Toborek1n = 5Kovtanyuk took 4 of 5
S2Kovtanyuk2Toborek3n = 5Toborek took 3 of 5
S3Kovtanyuk4Toborek1n = 5Kovtanyuk took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKovtanyukToborekK − TBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match35.229.8+5.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovtanyukToborekBasisWin rate · lifetime64 / 204 vs 25 / 7331.4%34.3%64 / 204 vs 25 / 73Avg sets wonper match1.61.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.434.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KovtanyukKovtanyuk 1.77/Toborek 1.95
Miss
What we said
54.2%
Kovtanyuk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Denys Kovtanyuk @ 1.77 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Toborek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 28 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk4011612113S. Toborek359111051
WSep 28 · 17:00D. Kovtanyuk341111123S. Toborek2064100
WSep 26 · 12:05D. Kovtanyuk4211911113S. Toborek37811991
LSep 24 · 22:00D. Kovtanyuk2781090S. Toborek341112113
WSep 24 · 19:00D. Kovtanyuk331111113S. Toborek238690
D. Kovtanyuk10
LOct 5 · 17:30J. Caban1.801111108113D. Kovtanyuk1.9068121162LOct 5 · 15:00K. Patryk1.5011129113D. Kovtanyuk2.456101161LOct 5 · 14:30J. Komorowicz2.0012711113D. Kovtanyuk1.721011581LSep 30 · 21:30D. Kovtanyuk—811651K. Kos—11411113LSep 30 · 20:30W. Arkadiusz1.6011811113D. Kovtanyuk2.21711831WSep 30 · 19:30K. Kos1.49912121172D. Kovtanyuk2.451114107113WSep 30 · 18:00P. Kedzierski2.35611641D. Kovtanyuk1.5411911113LSep 30 · 15:30L. Buklat1.3011111013113D. Kovtanyuk3.2553121582LSep 30 · 14:00K. Patryk1.451111113D. Kovtanyuk2.589840LSep 29 · 22:10D. Kovtanyuk2.05510110J. Caban1.681112133
S. Toborek10
WOct 5 · 18:00J. Komorowicz1.6688131172S. Toborek2.051111115113LOct 5 · 15:30W. Arkadiusz1.389111110113S. Toborek2.8011881282WOct 5 · 14:00K. Patryk1.3111711682S. Toborek3.20511711113LSep 28 · 21:40D. Kovtanyuk—11612113S. Toborek—9111051LSep 28 · 21:00S. Toborek3.007121101K. Patryk1.35111011123LSep 28 · 19:00P. Kamil1.521111113S. Toborek2.374670LSep 28 · 17:00D. Kovtanyuk1.801111123S. Toborek1.9064100WSep 28 · 16:00L. Buklat1.68118117162S. Toborek2.08711711183LSep 28 · 15:30S. Toborek2.5510811121W. Arkadiusz1.4612119143LSep 27 · 22:35K. Patryk—101111113S. Toborek—126671
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