TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adam Linek vs Lukasz Pietraszko 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210115119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched: 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Linek above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 64.8%
58 points played in total.
H2H Adam Linek 17–32 Lukasz Pietraszko Adam Linek has won 17 of their 49 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Pietraszko beat Linek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:5664.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 0.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Pietraszko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-32 in 49
Pietraszko
Wrong
gap of 15 in 49, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Linek 1462 vs Pietraszko 1657
Pietraszko
Wrong
both rated, 195 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Linek 40% vs Pietraszko 60%
Pietraszko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Linek 60% vs Pietraszko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Linek -1 · Pietraszko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Pietraszko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLinek 2.375 / Pietraszko 1.533
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Pietraszko)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13249590
Linek2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 136 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back29% 55 of 191
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 89
Pietraszko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 125 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it100% 51 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it83% 83 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLinek3wins
AwayPietraszko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPietraszko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLinek40%2 of 5
AwayPietraszko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Linek5Pietraszko5n = 10split evenly
S2Linek4Pietraszko6n = 10Pietraszko took 6 of 10
S3Linek6Pietraszko4n = 10Linek took 6 of 10
S4Linek3Pietraszko5n = 8Pietraszko took 5 of 8
S5Linek1Pietraszko4n = 5Pietraszko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLinekPietraszkoL − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.141.3−3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLinekPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime776 / 1661 vs 451 / 87646.7%51.5%776 / 1661 vs 451 / 876Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PietraszkoLinek 2.38/Pietraszko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Pietraszko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Linek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 17:40A. Linek1910270L. Pietraszko341211113
LSep 29 · 16:05A. Linek471110511102L. Pietraszko46712114123
LSep 16 · 00:10A. Linek4211511872L. Pietraszko47711711113
WSep 15 · 19:15A. Linek331111113L. Pietraszko236980
LAug 25 · 10:10A. Linek4571111792L. Pietraszko49118811113
WJul 20 · 01:00A. Linek3511211113L. Pietraszko35711981
LJul 19 · 22:35A. Linek4511891162L. Pietraszko50911118113
LJun 8 · 18:30A. Linek389101181L. Pietraszko4211128113
WJun 2 · 00:10A. Linek48811117113L. Pietraszko4611881182
LJun 1 · 21:45A. Linek29611481L. Pietraszko4111811113
A. Linek10
LOct 6 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.331111113A. Linek3.256760LOct 6 · 21:00P. Blocho1.7312118113A. Linek2.001071191WOct 6 · 20:30A. Linek2.10111017113A. Gromek1.679121591LOct 6 · 18:50A. Linek3.2548111142D. Kosmal1.33111168113LOct 6 · 17:40A. Linek2.2010270L. Pietraszko1.611211113WOct 6 · 16:05A. Linek1.83111189113M. Minda1.8399111182LOct 6 · 15:00A. Linek2.109490P. Blocho1.671111113WOct 6 · 00:10A. Linek2.00611911123J. Glanowski1.73119117102WOct 5 · 23:20A. Linek1.5011128113M. Trela2.508101181WOct 5 · 21:50A. Linek3.25881111113K. Staszczyk1.3311119892
L. Pietraszko10
LOct 6 · 21:25A. Gromek2.2513118143L. Pietraszko1.5711811121LOct 6 · 20:05L. Pietraszko1.50111191142P. Blocho2.50861113113WOct 6 · 18:30M. Minda2.1010780L. Pietraszko1.671211113WOct 6 · 17:40A. Linek2.2010270L. Pietraszko1.611211113WOct 6 · 16:55L. Pietraszko1.5381111143A. Gromek2.381178121LOct 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.0011119111D. Kosmal1.7371311133WOct 4 · 23:20S. Brud1.911212101192L. Pietraszko1.801014123113WOct 4 · 22:35M. Kukawka2.384290L. Pietraszko1.531111113WOct 4 · 22:10L. Pietraszko1.611211113J. Nadolny2.2010380LOct 4 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.201711113L. Pietraszko1.6115770
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