TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Zagajewski vs Piotr Maruszak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116511117911117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched: 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timePiotr Maruszak to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Piotr Maruszak @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
116511117911117
H2H Mateusz Zagajewski 7–7 Piotr Maruszak Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Maruszak beat Zagajewski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 12:1954.6%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.0pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Maruszak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zagajewski 1283 vs Maruszak 1362
Maruszak
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zagajewski 20% vs Maruszak 40%
Maruszak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zagajewski 20% vs Maruszak 60%
Maruszak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zagajewski -2 · Maruszak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Maruszak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maruszak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZagajewski 1.909 / Maruszak 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Maruszak)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243394
Zagajewski1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 34 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Maruszak1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 35 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it95% 19 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it76% 29 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZagajewski5wins
AwayMaruszak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZagajewski83.3%5 of 6
AwayMaruszak100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zagajewski6Maruszak4n = 10Zagajewski took 6 of 10
S2Zagajewski4Maruszak6n = 10Maruszak took 6 of 10
S3Zagajewski3Maruszak7n = 10Maruszak took 7 of 10
S4Zagajewski3Maruszak2n = 5Zagajewski took 3 of 5
S5Zagajewski2Maruszak1n = 3Zagajewski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZagajewskiMaruszakZ − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.734.3−0.6per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZagajewskiMaruszakBasisWin rate · lifetime346 / 715 vs 238 / 49648.4%48%346 / 715 vs 238 / 496Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MaruszakZagajewski 1.91/Maruszak 1.80
Miss
What we said
54.6%
Maruszak · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Piotr Maruszak @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Zagajewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 06:00M. Zagajewski199640P. Maruszak331111113
WSep 20 · 13:50M. Zagajewski331111113P. Maruszak189630
LAug 2 · 10:05M. Zagajewski29211791P. Maruszak4211911113
WAug 2 · 05:35M. Zagajewski531191111113P. Maruszak4161181332
LMay 15 · 15:25M. Zagajewski3811661142P. Maruszak45911113113
LMay 1 · 13:05M. Zagajewski247890P. Maruszak331111113
WMay 1 · 03:25M. Zagajewski4011117113P. Maruszak35871191
WApr 10 · 20:05M. Zagajewski341111123P. Maruszak2073100
WJan 2 · 10:00M. Zagajewski44113811113P. Maruszak4381111492
LDec 12 · 12:00M. Zagajewski239860P. Maruszak331111113
M. Zagajewski10
LOct 4 · 11:45M. Zagajewski1.725970K. Makowski2.001111113LOct 4 · 10:05M. Zagajewski2.946950M. Marchlewski1.351111113WOct 4 · 09:00M. Zagajewski1.80119116113P. Staniszewski1.9171121122LOct 4 · 07:40T. Piotrowski1.931112113M. Zagajewski1.7981070LOct 4 · 06:50M. Marchlewski1.3012811113M. Zagajewski3.101011881LOct 4 · 06:00M. Zagajewski2.209640P. Maruszak1.601111113WOct 4 · 04:25M. Zagajewski1.581111113K. Makowski2.209870LOct 4 · 03:40P. Staniszewski2.001311113M. Zagajewski1.7011590LSep 25 · 14:40M. Zagajewski2.78116461T. Filbrandt1.3971111113LSep 25 · 13:05M. Zagajewski3.4578140J. Zochniak1.251111163
P. Maruszak10
LOct 4 · 12:10P. Maruszak3.501681121K. Szurlej1.2718115113WOct 4 · 10:30P. Maruszak1.8611214113P. Staniszewski1.856111281LOct 4 · 09:45K. Makowski2.30323119113P. Maruszak1.55112171192WOct 4 · 08:30M. Marchlewski1.55107111152P. Maruszak2.25121177113LOct 4 · 07:15P. Maruszak1.854711111K. Makowski1.8511114133WOct 4 · 06:00M. Zagajewski2.209640P. Maruszak1.601111113WOct 4 · 04:50P. Staniszewski2.10128991P. Maruszak1.65101111113LOct 4 · 03:20T. Piotrowski1.85911611133P. Maruszak1.85113117112WOct 3 · 14:35K. Makowski3.00751191P. Maruszak1.3211117113WOct 3 · 13:25P. Maruszak1.75155914123M. Skorski1.9513111112102
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