TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Wojciech Wojtaszczyk vs Rafal Idaczyk 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116811911118119
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:35 and never touched: 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeWojciech Wojtaszczyk to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingWojciech Wojtaszczyk above · Rafal Idaczyk below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Wojciech Wojtaszczyk at 70.3%
95 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Wojtaszczyk 8–4 Rafal Idaczyk Rafal Idaczyk has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Idaczyk beat Wojtaszczyk 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3570.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Wojtaszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Wojtaszczyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wojtaszczyk 1456 vs Idaczyk 1299
Wojtaszczyk
Correct
both rated, 157 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wojtaszczyk 40% vs Idaczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wojtaszczyk 60% vs Idaczyk 30%
Wojtaszczyk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wojtaszczyk -1 · Idaczyk -3
Idaczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Wojtaszczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wojtaszczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWojtaszczyk 1.40 / Idaczyk 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Wojtaszczyk)-1.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13240559
Wojtaszczyk1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 374 of 543
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it84% 293 of 347
Idaczyk2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 110 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back16% 28 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWojtaszczyk6wins
AwayIdaczyk4wins
Wojtaszczyk leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWojtaszczyk83.3%5 of 6
AwayIdaczyk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wojtaszczyk6Idaczyk4n = 10Wojtaszczyk took 6 of 10
S2Wojtaszczyk6Idaczyk4n = 10Wojtaszczyk took 6 of 10
S3Wojtaszczyk6Idaczyk4n = 10Wojtaszczyk took 6 of 10
S4Wojtaszczyk3Idaczyk3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWojtaszczykIdaczykW − IBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.732.1+3.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWojtaszczykIdaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime582 / 870 vs 488 / 98066.9%49.8%582 / 870 vs 488 / 980Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.735.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WojtaszczykWojtaszczyk 1.40/Idaczyk 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Wojtaszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wojtaszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 06:30W. Wojtaszczyk218940R. Idaczyk331111113
WAug 28 · 11:25W. Wojtaszczyk4481113123R. Idaczyk3911711101
WAug 28 · 05:15W. Wojtaszczyk43111110113R. Idaczyk32881241
WJul 16 · 18:25W. Wojtaszczyk331111113R. Idaczyk103250
LJun 17 · 06:00W. Wojtaszczyk341141361R. Idaczyk4141115113
LMay 23 · 04:50W. Wojtaszczyk344811111R. Idaczyk4111116133
LApr 25 · 05:10W. Wojtaszczyk35991251R. Idaczyk43111110113
WMar 21 · 08:35W. Wojtaszczyk361411113R. Idaczyk2112360
WFeb 28 · 08:10W. Wojtaszczyk341112113R. Idaczyk2581070
WFeb 1 · 07:20W. Wojtaszczyk4314117113R. Idaczyk361251181
W. Wojtaszczyk10
LOct 4 · 11:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.30981141W. Buczynski3.4011118113WOct 4 · 10:10P. Polok1.835770W. Wojtaszczyk1.831111113WOct 4 · 09:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.831112113J. Jesiek1.8371040LOct 4 · 07:45W. Wojtaszczyk1.83891151P. Polok1.8311119113LOct 4 · 06:30W. Wojtaszczyk1.408940R. Idaczyk2.751111113WOct 4 · 05:15W. Wojtaszczyk1.331113113W. Buczynski3.2591160WOct 4 · 04:10D. Swider1.831171041W. Wojtaszczyk1.839111273WOct 4 · 03:25W. Wojtaszczyk1.6791111123J. Jesiek2.101198101WOct 3 · 13:55L. Bernacki2.5010101161W. Wojtaszczyk1.5012126113LOct 3 · 13:05S. Sojka1.8311113113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83891181
R. Idaczyk10
LOct 4 · 11:50P. Polok1.3311127113R. Idaczyk3.257101121LOct 4 · 11:00R. Idaczyk1.8313117582J. Jesiek1.831141111113LOct 4 · 09:50R. Idaczyk2.105640D. Swider1.671111113WOct 4 · 08:10R. Idaczyk1.731111113W. Buczynski2.009690WOct 4 · 06:30W. Wojtaszczyk1.408940R. Idaczyk2.751111113WOct 4 · 05:40D. Swider1.5778100R. Idaczyk2.251111123LOct 4 · 04:55R. Idaczyk2.007630J. Jesiek1.731111113LOct 4 · 03:50R. Idaczyk2.635850P. Polok1.441111113LOct 3 · 17:05D. Swider1.8591111113R. Idaczyk1.85116571LOct 3 · 15:55R. Idaczyk2.4514941162R. Wojcik1.501211119113
Upcoming Matches
W. Wojtaszczyk
R. Idaczyk
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.