TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Rafal Idaczyk vs Pawel Polok 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811511––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:41 and never touched: 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timePawel Polok to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Idaczyk above · Pawel Polok below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Pawel Polok at 67.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 1–1 Pawel Polok Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:4167.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 2.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Polok
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1287 vs Polok 1490
Polok
Correct
both rated, 203 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 0% vs Polok 100%
Polok
Correct
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 20% vs Polok 80%
Polok
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk -6 · Polok +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% · Clear lean (leans Polok) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polok form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 2.625 / Polok 1.444
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Polok)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13237682
Idaczyk2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 108 of 292
Down 0–1, comes back16% 27 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 114
Polok1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 123 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it95% 70 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it83% 101 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeIdaczyk1wins
AwayPolok1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricIdaczykPolokI − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match39.038.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykPolokBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 972 vs 177 / 27549.9%64.4%485 / 972 vs 177 / 275Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PolokIdaczyk 2.63/Polok 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Polok · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Polok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 26 · 09:50R. Idaczyk4211119113P. Polok31871151
LAug 21 · 04:00R. Idaczyk36791461P. Polok45111112113
R. Idaczyk10
LOct 3 · 17:05D. Swider1.8591111113R. Idaczyk1.85116571LOct 3 · 15:55R. Idaczyk2.4514941162R. Wojcik1.501211119113LOct 3 · 14:45P. Jedrzejak1.57115911113R. Idaczyk2.2581111982LOct 3 · 13:30D. Morawiec1.55119811113R. Idaczyk2.2541111262LOct 3 · 11:55P. Gumulinski1.5551211113R. Idaczyk2.301110841LOct 3 · 10:20R. Idaczyk—711951D. Swider—11811113WOct 3 · 09:05R. Idaczyk2.35111176113D. Morawiec1.5079111162WOct 3 · 07:55R. Idaczyk2.00712123113R. Wojcik1.721110101182LOct 3 · 06:45P. Jedrzejak1.30151111113R. Idaczyk3.25175961LOct 3 · 05:55R. Idaczyk2.40812127102P. Gumulinski1.5011101011123
P. Polok10
LOct 4 · 04:30P. Polok1.33711851W. Buczynski3.2511711113WOct 3 · 14:20P. Polok1.5751111113J. Jesiek2.25115581WOct 3 · 12:40L. Bernacki2.2061011131P. Polok1.6111129153WOct 3 · 11:50S. Sojka2.10991131P. Polok1.6711119113WOct 3 · 11:00P. Polok1.36116611113O. Sokolowski3.0031111232WOct 3 · 09:50P. Polok1.831112510113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83610111282LOct 3 · 08:00M. Koczyba2.2012117113P. Polok1.581011191WOct 3 · 07:10K. Adamus2.0081013101P. Polok1.70111211123WOct 3 · 06:25P. Polok1.421115113W. Pytlas2.5591390WOct 3 · 04:50P. Polok1.351111113P. Mecik2.955540
Upcoming Matches
R. Idaczyk
Oct 4 · 05:40R. Idaczyk2.25D. Swider1.57—Oct 4 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.75W. Wojtaszczyk1.40—Oct 4 · 08:10R. Idaczyk1.57W. Buczynski2.25—Oct 4 · 09:50R. Idaczyk—D. Swider——Oct 4 · 11:00R. Idaczyk2.00J. Jesiek1.73—Oct 4 · 11:50R. Idaczyk3.25P. Polok1.33—Oct 4 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.75W. Wojtaszczyk1.40—Oct 4 · 14:20R. Idaczyk1.57W. Buczynski2.25—
P. Polok
Oct 4 · 06:05P. Polok1.44J. Jesiek2.63—Oct 4 · 06:55P. Polok1.80D. Swider1.91—Oct 4 · 07:45P. Polok1.83W. Wojtaszczyk1.83—Oct 4 · 09:00P. Polok1.33W. Buczynski3.25—Oct 4 · 10:10P. Polok1.83W. Wojtaszczyk1.83—Oct 4 · 11:50P. Polok1.33R. Idaczyk3.25—Oct 4 · 13:05P. Polok—D. Swider——Oct 4 · 14:40P. Polok1.44J. Jesiek2.63—
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