TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Minda vs Jakub Zochniak 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118511911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched: 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Zochniak to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
511118511911––
H2H Michal Minda 65–85 Jakub Zochniak Michal Minda has won 65 of their 150 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2058.4%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 0.4pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Zochniak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
65-85 in 150
Zochniak
Correct
gap of 20 in 150, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Minda 1509 vs Zochniak 1556
Zochniak
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Minda 40% vs Zochniak 20%
Minda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Minda 60% vs Zochniak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Minda -1 · Zochniak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Zochniak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zochniak form (20%) is below what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMinda 2.00 / Zochniak 1.70
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Zochniak)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13223032
Minda2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
78%takes the first set · 7 of 9
As underdog39% won 133 of 339
Down 0–1, comes back24% 49 of 205
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 102
Zochniak1.70
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite66% won 311 of 469
Up 2–0, closes it94% 151 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it79% 233 of 295
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMinda4wins
AwayZochniak6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderZochniak leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMinda80%4 of 5
AwayZochniak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Minda5Zochniak5n = 10split evenly
S2Minda3Zochniak7n = 10Zochniak took 7 of 10
S3Minda4Zochniak6n = 10Zochniak took 6 of 10
S4Minda4Zochniak4n = 8split evenly
S5Minda3Zochniak2n = 5Minda took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMindaZochniakM − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.545.8−3.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMindaZochniakBasisWin rate · lifetime1016 / 1977 vs 1151 / 220051.4%52.3%1016 / 1977 vs 1151 / 2200Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZochniakMinda 2.00/Zochniak 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.4%
Zochniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Zochniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 30 · 13:30M. Minda531191111112J. Zochniak55131199133
LSep 28 · 11:25M. Minda32145671J. Zochniak45121111113
WSep 25 · 13:55M. Minda331111113J. Zochniak238780
LSep 24 · 16:30M. Minda4071241252J. Zochniak5311101110113
LSep 23 · 14:20M. Minda4410126161J. Zochniak51121011183
WSep 18 · 13:30M. Minda561111119143J. Zochniak49513811122
WSep 17 · 14:20M. Minda52138911113J. Zochniak51111111992
LSep 16 · 15:45M. Minda2376100J. Zochniak341111123
LSep 7 · 06:25M. Minda37881381J. Zochniak44111111113
WSep 4 · 06:50M. Minda551391012113J. Zochniak531111121092
M. Minda10
LOct 1 · 10:10D. Kosmal1.60411115113M. Minda2.2011471192LOct 1 · 09:25M. Minda2.00116911102B. Czerwinski1.72511119123WOct 1 · 08:35M. Minda1.80113118113R. Stapor1.8571121182WOct 1 · 07:00M. Minda1.3711611123M. Lukaszewski2.707119101LOct 1 · 06:00M. Minda1.909813131M. Kukawka1.80111111153LOct 1 · 04:10M. Minda1.331B. Warpas2.953WOct 1 · 03:00M. Minda1.6511115113K. Sulkowski2.10991191WSep 30 · 14:20B. Czerwinski1.858660M. Minda1.851111113LSep 30 · 13:30J. Zochniak1.68131199133M. Minda2.051191111112WSep 30 · 11:25M. Zwolinski3.45791171M. Minda1.2511117113
J. Zochniak10
WOct 1 · 10:35A. Mugowski2.45811891J. Zochniak1.4911811113LOct 1 · 09:00D. Kosmal1.6311811113J. Zochniak2.15511961LSep 30 · 19:40K. Staszczyk1.8011811113J. Zochniak1.91811761LSep 30 · 18:50D. Solilo1.611111113J. Zochniak2.206990LSep 30 · 18:05J. Zochniak1.6181191472K. Rudomina2.201191112113WSep 30 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.1011119113B. Sulkowski1.67451131WSep 30 · 15:45P. Blocho1.6711812862J. Zochniak2.108111011113WSep 30 · 14:40R. Stapor3.001J. Zochniak1.353WSep 30 · 13:30J. Zochniak1.68131199133M. Minda2.051191111112WSep 30 · 12:15M. Kolek1.858141191J. Zochniak1.8011167113
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