TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Czerwinski vs Jakub Zochniak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12109119111191210
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
104 points played in total.
Set by set
12109119111191210
H2H Bartosz Czerwinski 15–5 Jakub Zochniak Jakub Zochniak has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2855.9%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 2.9pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (55%)
Czerwinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-5 in 20
Czerwinski
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Czerwinski 1563 vs Zochniak 1567
Zochniak
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Czerwinski 60% vs Zochniak 40%
Czerwinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Czerwinski 70% vs Zochniak 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Czerwinski -1 · Zochniak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Czerwinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCzerwinski 1.70 / Zochniak 2.05
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Czerwinski)-2.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13223031
Czerwinski1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 112 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it84% 80 of 95
Zochniak2.05
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As underdog34% won 135 of 401
Down 0–1, comes back14% 32 of 232
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 117
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCzerwinski8wins
AwayZochniak2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCzerwinski leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCzerwinski85.7%6 of 7
AwayZochniak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Czerwinski7Zochniak3n = 10Czerwinski took 7 of 10
S2Czerwinski6Zochniak4n = 10Czerwinski took 6 of 10
S3Czerwinski5Zochniak5n = 10split evenly
S4Czerwinski6Zochniak2n = 8Czerwinski took 6 of 8
S5Czerwinski3Zochniak1n = 4Czerwinski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCzerwinskiZochniakC − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.239.2+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCzerwinskiZochniakBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 1032 vs 1152 / 220148.3%52.3%498 / 1032 vs 1152 / 2201Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiCzerwinski 1.70/Zochniak 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Czerwinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 11:00B. Czerwinski361114113J. Zochniak3091290
LSep 28 · 12:40B. Czerwinski28111791J. Zochniak3961111113
WSep 22 · 11:00B. Czerwinski381611113J. Zochniak2314630
WSep 18 · 14:20B. Czerwinski48119116113J. Zochniak4571191172
LSep 16 · 11:00B. Czerwinski5610111014112J. Zochniak581291212133
WSep 15 · 09:50B. Czerwinski4011711113J. Zochniak34611891
WJun 11 · 06:55B. Czerwinski5411111011113J. Zochniak4213612562
WMay 27 · 08:10B. Czerwinski4011117113J. Zochniak34591191
WMay 22 · 08:45B. Czerwinski4111711123J. Zochniak378118101
WJan 16 · 05:15B. Czerwinski51811812123J. Zochniak501181110102
B. Czerwinski10
LOct 1 · 14:40D. Kosmal1.651111133B. Czerwinski2.1078110LOct 1 · 12:15A. Mugowski2.62911911113B. Czerwinski1.4411911892WOct 1 · 11:00R. Stapor2.659770B. Czerwinski1.401111113WOct 1 · 09:25M. Minda2.00116911102B. Czerwinski1.72511119123LSep 30 · 14:20B. Czerwinski1.858660M. Minda1.851111113WSep 30 · 12:40M. Zwolinski4.108780B. Czerwinski1.211111113WSep 30 · 11:50R. Stapor2.8591170B. Czerwinski1.351113113WSep 30 · 11:00B. Czerwinski1.771114113J. Zochniak1.9591290LSep 30 · 09:50B. Czerwinski2.05115771M. Kolek1.6961111113WSep 29 · 08:35A. Sobel1.9041090B. Czerwinski1.801112113
J. Zochniak10
WOct 1 · 14:20R. Stapor2.403780J. Zochniak1.501111113WOct 1 · 11:25M. Minda2.00511591J. Zochniak1.7011811113WOct 1 · 10:35A. Mugowski2.45811891J. Zochniak1.4911811113LOct 1 · 09:00D. Kosmal1.6311811113J. Zochniak2.15511961LSep 30 · 19:40K. Staszczyk1.8011811113J. Zochniak1.91811761LSep 30 · 18:50D. Solilo1.611111113J. Zochniak2.206990LSep 30 · 18:05J. Zochniak1.6181191472K. Rudomina2.201191112113WSep 30 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.1011119113B. Sulkowski1.67451131WSep 30 · 15:45P. Blocho1.6711812862J. Zochniak2.108111011113LSep 30 · 11:00B. Czerwinski1.771114113J. Zochniak1.9591290
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